Jazz vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 02, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -7.5 favorites vs. the Jazz
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | SUN | KJZZ

The Utah Jazz visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Jazz vs Heat Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Jazz are 32-28 against the spread, while the Heat are 31-28 against the spread.


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Jazz vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Utah Jazz+9.5 -110O 224.5 -115+310
Miami Heat -9.5 -110U 224.5 -105-400

Heat vs Jazz Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Saturday‘s game with 79.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Jazz and Heat.

Heat vs Jazz Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Jazz will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.2% confidence.


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  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 78 games (+13.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 73 games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 79 games (+13.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have covered the 4Q Spread in 42 of their last 73 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 89 games (+25.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 68 games (+19.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 83 games (+18.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 29 games (+18.40 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 56 of their last 92 games (+17.90 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Jazz have gone 32-28 (+1.1 Units / 1.67% ROI).

  • 27-33 against the Moneyline (-1.4 Units / -1.75% ROI)
  • 32-27 against the Over for game total points (+2.3 Units / 3.48% ROI)
  • 27-32 against the Under for game total points (-8.1 Units / -12.29% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 31-28 (+0.3 Units / 0.46% ROI).

  • 33-26 against the Moneyline (+3.5 Units / 3.67% ROI)
  • 22-37 against the Over for game total points (-18.7 Units / -28.81% ROI)
  • 37-22 against the Under for game total points (+12.8 Units / 19.72% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 91 games (-27.05 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 68 games (-26.50 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 75 games (-24.35 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.15 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 70 games (-17.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 78 games (-25.05 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 71 games (-22.75 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 79 games (-20.50 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 68 games (-20.40 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only covered the 1H Spread in 23 of their last 60 games (-17.80 Units / -27% ROI)

Jump to:

Utah Jazz: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Jazz are winless (0-4) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Jazz are 17-25 (.405) when they lose the turnover margin this season — 10th-worst in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 13.1 turnovers per game this season — T-9th-lowest in the NBA.

The Jazz are 10-15 (.400) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Jazz are 16-19 (.457) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .560

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Utah Jazz

The Heat are undefeated (8-0) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

The Heat are 12-7 (.632) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 11-7 (.611) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Injury Report: Heat vs. JazzSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 2

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Otto Porter Jr. (Utah Jazz): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision

Utah Jazz Offensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have averaged 15.9 turnovers per game (857 turnovers/54 games) this season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Jazz have averaged 7.8 turnovers per game (423 turnovers/54 games) in the second half this season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Jazz have averaged 16.7 second chance points per game (902 points/54 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Jazz averaged 58.8 points per game (4,823 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Heat have averaged 44.1 points in the paint per game (2,908 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 44.5 points in the paint per game (1,824 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

Utah Jazz Defensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have allowed 22.0 fast break points per game (637 points/29 games) on the road this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.8

The Jazz averaged 6.1 steals per game (500 steals/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Jazz allowed 16.8 fast break points per game (1,377 points/82 games) last season — 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.0

The Jazz have allowed 19.9 fast break points per game (1,394 points/70 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.5

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.