Jazz vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 21, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks are -14.5 favorites vs. the Jazz
  • Total (Over/Under): 236.5 points
  • Watch the game on KJZZ | WFAA

The Utah Jazz visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Jazz vs Mavericks Over/Under is 237.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Jazz are 37-32 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 38-31 against the spread.


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Jazz vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Utah Jazz+13.5 -110O 237.5 -110+650
Dallas Mavericks -13.5 -110U 237.5 -110-1100

Mavericks vs Jazz Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Thursday‘s game with 94.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Jazz and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Jazz Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.7% confidence.


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  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+7.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+13.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Jazz have gone 37-32 (+1.85 Units / 2.44% ROI).

  • 29-40 against the Moneyline (-6.45 Units / -7.12% ROI)
  • 37-30 against the Over for game total points (+4 Units / 5.27% ROI)
  • 30-37 against the Under for game total points (-10.7 Units / -14.1% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 38-31 (+3.9 Units / 5.15% ROI).

  • 40-29 against the Moneyline (+0.85 Units / 0.63% ROI)
  • 34-35 against the Over for game total points (-4.5 Units / -5.93% ROI)
  • 35-34 against the Under for game total points (-2.4 Units / -3.16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 34 of their last 79 games (-34.90 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 79 games (-23.00 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 42 games (-19.25 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 24 of their last 62 games (-18.55 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 25 of their last 62 games (-16.45 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 80 games (-22.30 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only covered the 1H Spread in 27 of their last 69 games (-21.45 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 79 games (-20.30 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 74 games (-20.30 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-18.45 Units / -20% ROI)

Jump to:

Utah Jazz: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Jazz are winless (0-4) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .392

The Jazz are winless (0-15) when their eFG is 50% or worse this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .173

The Jazz were 1-9 (.100) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Jazz are 7-18 (.280) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Utah Jazz

The Mavericks are 23-2 (.920) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .787

The Mavericks were 13-17 (.433) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Mavericks are 41-15 (.732) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th-best in the NBA. The Jazz have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd-worst in the NBA.

The Mavericks were 22-32 (.407) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. JazzThursday‘s Game, Mar. 21

  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Otto Porter Jr. (Utah Jazz): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision

Utah Jazz Offensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have averaged 16.3 second chance points per game (2,455 points/151 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

The Jazz have averaged 7.9 turnovers per game (544 turnovers/69 games) in the second half this season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Jazz have averaged 8.1 second chance points per game (1,223 points/151 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Jazz have averaged 16.0 second chance points per game (1,201 points/75 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,510 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.8 (193 assists/ 68 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (1,002 turnovers/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

Utah Jazz Defensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have allowed 20.1 fast break points per game (1,508 points/75 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.6

The Jazz have allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (539/1,306) in the first half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Jazz have allowed 22.1 fast break points per game (751 points/34 games) on the road this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.9

The Jazz have allowed 17.5 fast break points per game (2,646 points/151 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.2

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 4.7 blocks per game (327 blocks/69 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Mavericks averaged 3.7 blocks per game (304 blocks/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Mavericks have averaged 6.8 steals per game (466 steals/69 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.