Knicks vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 21

  • The Nuggets are -9.5 favorites vs. the Knicks
  • Total (Over/Under): 207.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | MSG

The New York Knicks visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).

The Knicks vs Nuggets Over/Under is 208.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Knicks are 35-30 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 31-36 against the spread.


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Knicks vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
New York Knicks+8.5 -105O 208.5 -115+310
Denver Nuggets -8.5 -115U 208.5 -105-400

Nuggets vs Knicks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Thursday‘s game with 85.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Knicks and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Knicks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 55.5% confidence.


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  • The New York Knicks have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 43 games (+22.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 51 of their last 79 games (+20.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 50 of their last 79 games (+16.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+15.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 62 games (+13.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 90 games (+25.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 61 of their last 96 games (+20.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+18.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 51 of their last 82 games (+15.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 97 games (+14.05 Units / 13% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 35-30 (+2 Units / 2.67% ROI).

  • 41-27 against the Moneyline (+10.7 Units / 7.01% ROI)
  • 25-43 against the Over for game total points (-22.3 Units / -29.81% ROI)
  • 43-25 against the Under for game total points (+15.5 Units / 20.72% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 31-36 (-8.6 Units / -11.32% ROI).

  • 48-21 against the Moneyline (+14 Units / 5.85% ROI)
  • 26-41 against the Over for game total points (-19.1 Units / -25.15% ROI)
  • 41-26 against the Under for game total points (+12.45 Units / 16.41% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 98 games (-34.30 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 99 games (-27.90 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 97 games (-26.45 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 97 games (-17.90 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games (-12.35 Units / -11% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 79 games (-31.95 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 81 games (-28.30 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 81 games (-28.20 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 33 games (-21.35 Units / -55% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 87 games (-19.25 Units / -19% ROI)

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New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Knicks are winless (0-13) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .259

The Knicks are undefeated (7-0) when their opponents turns the ball over 20 or more times since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Knicks are 39-26 (.600) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .487

The Knicks are 34-19 (.642) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .511

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are winless (0-8) when shooting 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .115

The Nuggets are 22-9 (.710) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets were 15-6 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. KnicksThursday‘s Game, Mar. 21

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • OG Anunoby (New York Knicks): Elbow, Out
  • Duane Washington Jr. (New York Knicks): Thumb, Game Time Decision
  • Julius Randle (New York Knicks): Shoulder, Out
  • Mitchell Robinson (New York Knicks): Ankle, Out

New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks averaged 22.4 assists per game (918 assists/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.0

The Knicks have averaged 23.8 assists per game (1,621 assists/68 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.7

The Knicks averaged 16.2 second chance points per game (1,326 points/82 games) last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Knicks have an eFG% of 53% this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (1,015 assists/ 410 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets have 20.0 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.1

New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,991 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Knicks averaged 4.1 blocks per game (340 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Knicks averaged 6.4 steals per game (527 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Knicks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (619 blocks/150 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have allowed 11.2 made three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3

The Nuggets have averaged 7.0 steals per game (486 steals/69 games) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (378 blocks/69 games) this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Nuggets have allowed 11.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.6


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