Lakers vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 27, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Warriors are -1.5 favorites vs. the Lakers
  • Total (Over/Under): 242.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Los Angeles Lakers visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in San Francisco, CA.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Lakers vs Warriors Over/Under is 244.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Lakers are 21-26 against the spread, while the Warriors are 20-21 against the spread.


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Lakers vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Los Angeles Lakers+1.5 -110O 244.5 -115+100
Golden State Warriors -1.5 -110U 244.5 -105-120

Warriors vs Lakers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Lakers and Warriors, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Warriors vs Lakers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Lakers will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 59.6% confidence.


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  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+17.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 25 of their last 33 away games (+16.30 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 37 away games (+16.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 31 away games (+14.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 49 of their last 82 games (+12.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 24 of their last 41 games (+7.20 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 21-26 (-7.65 Units / -14.77% ROI).

  • 24-23 against the Moneyline (-4.65 Units / -5.36% ROI)
  • 25-22 against the Over for game total points (+0.8 Units / 1.55% ROI)
  • 22-25 against the Under for game total points (-5.55 Units / -10.72% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 20-21 (-3.1 Units / -6.71% ROI).

  • 19-23 against the Moneyline (-9.1 Units / -11.03% ROI)
  • 26-16 against the Over for game total points (+8.4 Units / 18.2% ROI)
  • 16-26 against the Under for game total points (-12.65 Units / -27.35% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 27 of their last 76 games (-26.65 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 31 of their last 84 games (-24.30 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 83 games (-22.80 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 3Q Spread in 35 of their last 88 games (-22.60 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 84 games (-22.30 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 41 of their last 96 games (-27.25 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 66 games (-24.25 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 80 games (-21.45 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 1H Spread in 40 of their last 96 games (-20.90 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 46 away games (-20.10 Units / -40% ROI)

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Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Lakers are 5-19 (.208) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Lakers are 16-38 (.296) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — T-8th-worst in the NBA. The Warriors have averaged 52.9 rebounds/game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 8th-highest in the NBA.

The Lakers are 9-3 (.750) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Lakers are 10-1 (.909) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Warriors were 1-16 (.059) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .188

The Warriors were 24-11 (.686) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Warriors are 10-13 (.435) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Warriors were 2-21 (.087) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .263

Injury Report: Warriors vs. LakersSaturday‘s Game, Jan. 27

  • Gary Payton II (Golden State Warriors): Calf, Out
  • Usman Garuba (Golden State Warriors): Finger, Out
  • Gabe Vincent (Los Angeles Lakers): Knee, Out
  • LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers): Calf, Game Time Decision
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (Los Angeles Lakers): Heel, Game Time Decision
  • Anthony Davis (Los Angeles Lakers): Hip, Game Time Decision

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 4.3 second chance points per game (197 points/46 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Lakers had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (304 assists/ 149 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.6

The Lakers have averaged 10.2 second chance points per game (467 points/46 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

The Lakers had 26.6 free throw attempts per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Warriors had 20.2 free throw attempts per game last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,116 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers averaged 6.4 steals per game (526 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Lakers have averaged 37.6 defensive rebounds per game (4,808 rebounds/128 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have 358 steals this season — tied for 5th most among NBA teams

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 35.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,499 rebounds/42 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Warriors have averaged 6.5 steals per game (275 steals/42 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Warriors have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (158 blocks/42 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Warriors averaged 3.9 blocks per game (323 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.