Mavericks vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 01, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics are -9.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
  • Total (Over/Under): 235.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | NBSB | WFAA

The Dallas Mavericks visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Boston, MA.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Celtics Over/Under is 237.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 32-27 against the spread, while the Celtics are 28-27 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+9.5 -115O 237.5 -110+310
Boston Celtics -9.5 -105U 237.5 -110-400

Celtics vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Friday‘s game with 85.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Celtics.

Celtics vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.2% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+17.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 2Q Spread in 25 of their last 35 away games (+13.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 61 of their last 98 games (+23.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 75 of their last 98 games (+14.25 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1Q Spread in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 32-27 (+2.35 Units / 3.63% ROI).

  • 34-25 against the Moneyline (+2 Units / 1.81% ROI)
  • 29-29 against the Over for game total points (-2.9 Units / -4.46% ROI)
  • 29-29 against the Under for game total points (-2.8 Units / -4.32% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 28-27 (-1.65 Units / -2.58% ROI).

  • 46-12 against the Moneyline (+11.1 Units / 3.82% ROI)
  • 28-30 against the Over for game total points (-5 Units / -7.84% ROI)
  • 30-28 against the Under for game total points (-0.8 Units / -1.25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 97 games (-24.30 Units / -6% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 97 games (-22.70 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 86 games (-22.40 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 32 of their last 81 games (-22.05 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 91 games (-18.30 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 69 games (-27.00 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 75 games (-23.70 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 45 games (-22.65 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 66 games (-17.75 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 76 games (-17.20 Units / -17% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Mavericks are 6-1 (.857) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .580

The Mavericks were 7-8 (.467) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Mavericks were 8-1 (.889) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

The Mavericks were 13-17 (.433) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Celtics are 31-6 (.838) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Celtics were 17-5 (.773) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Celtics are 31-5 (.861) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 3rd-best in the NBA. The Mavericks have averaged 50.3 rebounds/game this season — 6th-lowest in the NBA.

The Celtics are 14-1 (.933) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .580

Injury Report: Celtics vs. MavericksFriday‘s Game, Mar. 1

  • Boston Celtics – No Injuries Reported
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (157 assists/ 55 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks have averaged 44.1 points in the paint per game (6,004 points/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.6

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Mavericks have averaged 42.4 points in the paint per game (2,796 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics made 16.0 three-pointers per game last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Celtics have made 16.4 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics have made 856 three-pointers this season — most among NBA teams

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 34.5 defensive rebounds per game (1,864 rebounds/54 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Mavericks averaged 3.7 blocks per game (304 blocks/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,064 rebounds/53 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Celtics have averaged 38.3 defensive rebounds per game (5,176 rebounds/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have allowed an average of 1.19 points per shot (5,885 points/4,929 shots) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.30


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.