Mavericks vs Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 25, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks are -1.5 favorites vs. the Pacers
  • Total (Over/Under): 253.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSIN | BSW+

The Dallas Mavericks visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Pacers Over/Under is 251.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 30-26 against the spread, while the Pacers are 30-25 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Pacers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks-2.5 -105O 251.5 -105-140
Indiana Pacers +2.5 -115U 251.5 -115+115

Pacers vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Sunday‘s game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Pacers.

Pacers vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 2Q Spread in 25 of their last 32 away games (+17.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 42 games (+16.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 away games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 76 games (+18.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 19 of their last 23 games (+14.65 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+13.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games at home (+12.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 3Q Spread in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+12.25 Units / 37% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 30-26 (+1.45 Units / 2.36% ROI).

  • 33-23 against the Moneyline (+3.3 Units / 3.1% ROI)
  • 27-28 against the Over for game total points (-3.8 Units / -6.16% ROI)
  • 28-27 against the Under for game total points (-1.6 Units / -2.6% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 30-25 (+2.5 Units / 3.92% ROI).

  • 32-26 against the Moneyline (-1.85 Units / -1.69% ROI)
  • 31-25 against the Over for game total points (+3.45 Units / 5.4% ROI)
  • 25-31 against the Under for game total points (-9.05 Units / -14.21% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 78 games (-24.80 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 79 games (-24.15 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 47 games (-24.10 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 30 of their last 78 games (-21.80 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 31 games (-16.95 Units / -50% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 77 games (-26.70 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 66 games (-23.25 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 42 games (-21.45 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 63 games (-16.40 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 43 games (-15.30 Units / -27% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Mavericks are 19-0 (1.000) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — best in the NBA. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 50% this season — worst in the NBA.

The Mavericks are 14-5 (.737) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Pacers have averaged 48.6 rebounds/game this season — T-3rd-lowest in the NBA.

The Mavericks are 7-1 (.875) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

The Mavericks were 1-8 (.111) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Pacers are 16-4 (.800) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Mavericks have averaged 50.6 rebounds/game this season — T-6th-lowest in the NBA.

The Pacers were 13-26 (.333) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .442

The Pacers were 14-29 (.326) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Pacers were 18-26 (.409) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Injury Report: Pacers vs. MavericksSunday‘s Game, Feb. 25

  • Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Jalen Smith (Indiana Pacers): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,510 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (157 assists/ 55 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers averaged 3.1 fast break points per game (204 points/66 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Pacers have an eFG% of 58% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Pacers have a TS% of 55% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Pacers have averaged 30.9 assists per game (1,698 assists/55 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.7

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.6 steals per game (357 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Mavericks have averaged 6.1 steals per game (404 steals/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 32.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,805 rebounds/55 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Pacers have allowed 59.3 points in the paint per game (3,262 points/55 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 50.7

The Pacers averaged 5.8 blocks per game (478 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers averaged 33.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,730 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.