Mavericks vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 09, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks are -7.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 234.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSDT | BSW+

The Dallas Mavericks visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Mavericks vs Pistons Over/Under is 235.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 33-30 against the spread, while the Pistons are 31-30 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks-8.5 -110O 235.5 -115-350
Detroit Pistons +8.5 -110U 235.5 -105+280

Pistons vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Saturday‘s game with 78.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Pistons.

Pistons vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pistons will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 2Q Spread in 26 of their last 36 away games (+14.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 34 games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+13.15 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 4Q Spread in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the Spread in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 1H Spread in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 33-30 (+0.05 Units / 0.07% ROI).

  • 35-28 against the Moneyline (-3.4 Units / -2.87% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Over for game total points (-3.1 Units / -4.47% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Under for game total points (-3 Units / -4.34% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 31-30 (-2 Units / -2.93% ROI).

  • 10-52 against the Moneyline (-28.2 Units / -43.89% ROI)
  • 32-29 against the Over for game total points (+0.1 Units / 0.15% ROI)
  • 29-32 against the Under for game total points (-6.2 Units / -9.09% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 78 games (-38.60 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 78 games (-20.70 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 67 games (-18.20 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 37 games at home (-17.90 Units / -47% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 60 games (-17.35 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 73 games (-33.85 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 74 games (-28.25 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 49 games (-20.65 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 50 games (-17.40 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 21 of their last 56 games (-16.25 Units / -26% ROI)

Jump to:

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Mavericks are undefeated (6-0) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .746

The Mavericks are 6-1 (.857) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .580

The Mavericks are 25-8 (.758) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .631

The Mavericks are 19-6 (.760) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — T-9th-best in the NBA. The Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three this season — T-7th-worst in the NBA.

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Pistons were 4-44 (.083) when they lose the turnover margin last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Pistons are 9-79 (.102) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

The Pistons are 7-50 (.123) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Pistons are 4-62 (.061) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .361

Injury Report: Pistons vs. MavericksSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 9

  • Isaiah Stewart (Detroit Pistons): Suspension, Out
  • Quentin Grimes (Detroit Pistons): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (157 assists/ 55 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Mavericks have averaged 5.9 turnovers per game (809 turnovers/136 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (886 assists/ 615 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,884 assists/ 1,237 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (652 assists/ 405 TOs) on the road this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Pistons averaged 21.6 assists per game (886 assists/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.0

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 34.5 defensive rebounds per game (1,864 rebounds/54 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Mavericks have averaged 6.6 steals per game (357 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Mavericks averaged 3.7 blocks per game (304 blocks/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 5.8 steals per game (303 steals/52 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Pistons averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,756 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (319/786) in the second half this season — 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Pistons have forced 11.7 turnovers per game (610 turnovers/52 games) this season — tied for lowest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.