Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 08, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Thunder (17-22) are -3.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks (23-17)
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Sunday, January 8, 2023 at 7:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSOK & BSSW

The Dallas Mavericks visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Thunder Over/Under is 226.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 14-24 against the spread, while the Thunder are 23-16 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+4.5 -115O 226.5 -110+145
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 -105U 226.5 -110-175

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 55.1% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 52.9% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mavericks and Thunder, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 100 games (+22.68 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.25 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+8.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Moneyline in 39 of their last 65 games (+32.64 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 73 games (+21.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 31 games at home (+13.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+13.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+12.34 Units / 42% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 14-24 (-12.4 Units / -28.18% ROI).

  • 23-17 against the Moneyline (-12.5 Units / -13.46% ROI)
  • 23-17 against the Over for game total points (+4.3 Units / 9.77% ROI)
  • 17-23 against the Under for game total points (-8.3 Units / -18.86% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 23-16 (+5.45 Units / 12.72% ROI).

  • 17-22 against the Moneyline (+9.9 Units / 22.58% ROI)
  • 22-16 against the Over for game total points (+4.4 Units / 10.26% ROI)
  • 16-22 against the Under for game total points (-8.2 Units / -19.11% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 79 games (-34.40 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 82 games (-22.79 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 82 games (-22.75 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 80 games (-22.39 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 75 games (-20.50 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 100 games (-35.02 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 47 of their last 97 games (-22.00 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 76 games (-18.81 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 31 games (-17.13 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 92 games (-16.95 Units / -16% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Mavericks are 25-12 (.676) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Mavericks are 22-6 (.786) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Mavericks are 35-19 (.648) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Mavericks are 46-21 (.687) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 11-47 (.190) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Boston Celtics have averaged 45.1 rebounds per game (4,280 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-highest among NBA teams.

The Thunder are winless (0-31) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .141

The Thunder are 17-34 (.333) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

The Thunder are 6-15 (.286) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .480

Injury Report: Thunder vs. MavericksSunday‘s Game, Jan. 8

  • Jaylin Williams (Thunder): Williams is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Jan. 8) game against Dallas.
  • Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Holmgren will miss the 2022-23 season with Lisfranc injury to his right foot, according to Adrian Wojnarowsk of ESPN.
  • Ousmane Dieng (Thunder): Dieng suffered a fracture in his right wrist during Wednesday’s (Dec 14) Oklahoma City Blue game and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Brandon Rahbar of DailyThunder.com reports.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder): Thunder announced Pokusevski suffered a non-displaced tibial plateau fracture in his left leg and will be reevaluated in 6-8 weeks.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (Thunder): Robinson-Earl hasn’t played since Dec. 12 against Dallas. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): The Mavericks announced that Kleber underwent surgery for a right hamstring tear and there’s no timetable for his return.
  • Josh Green (Mavericks): Green hasn’t played since Dec. 9 against Milwaukee. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks): Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said Finney-Smith will miss at least another couple weeks, according to NBA writer Marc Stein.

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 7.9 assists per game (95 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Mavericks have averaged 49.9 points per game (599 points/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.7

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (95 assists/ 88 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Mavericks have a 32% free throw rate (321 free throw attempts/991 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 33% from three (2,000/6,055) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 1.19 points per shot (8,637 points/7,246 shots) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Thunder have an eFG% of 50% since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Thunder have averaged 1.17 points per shot (8,646 points/7,398 shots) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.25

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,106 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (327 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 31.1 defensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (552 steals/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.2 steals per game (119 steals/13 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Thunder have averaged 7.8 steals per game (742 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Thunder have blocked 81 shots this season — 4th most among NBA teams

The Thunder have averaged 6.2 blocks per game (81 blocks/13 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.