Thunder vs. Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Pick: NBA Playoffs, Game 4

The Oklahoma City Thunder won 106-85 over the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, taking a 3-0 lead in the opening round of this Western Conference series.

With a chance to finish the sweep, the top-seeded Thunder are 4.5-point favorites ahead of Monday’s Game 5.

This a significant adjustment to the basketball betting lines compared to Saturday, when Oklahoma City was a short 1.5-point road favorite.

Here’s a look at the NBA playoff odds and my Game 4 prediction: 

NBA Playoff Odds – Thunder vs. Pelicans

• Pelicans moneyline: +155
• Thunder moneyline: -190
• Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 205.5
• Series price: OTB

Thunder vs. Pelicans – NBA Playoffs, Game 4

Prediction: Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 assists (-105)

It has been quite the playoff debut for Oklahoma City big man Chet Holmgren.

Holmgren is averaging 15.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks per game. This comes after a regular season where he averaged 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds,  and 2.3 blocks per contest.

The only part of Holmgren’s game that has suffered is his assists, with him recording an average of 1.3 dimes this series following a regular-season average of 2.4 per contest. Holmgren’s lone multi-assist game in this series occurred in Game 1.

Thanks to a projection of 2.6 assists, there is great value on this discounted over for 1.5 assists. A fair price is north of -200, so I’d be willing to pay as much as -135 for this ticket.

It’s unlikely the price will ever get that high, but take advantage of the -105 value ahead of tipoff.

NBA ATS Records 2023-24

NBA Over/Under Records 2023-24