NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Sarr Starts as Betting Favorite

To the surprise of many, the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year race was actually compelling.

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, last year’s No. 1 overall pick and best prospect since LeBron James, eventually won the award. But he faced stiff competition from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Chet Holmgren.

The two-player race was so fierce that Holmgren was the betting favorite early in the year. Bettors could exploit some swings in the odds between Wemby and Holmgren.

If that can happen in a year where a rookie class has a generational prospect, imagine the potential race with a 2024 draft class without any star power. Bettors will need to stay on top of this market throughout the season.

With the NBA betting odds recently released, here is a look at how to attack the Rookie of the Year market.

Odds to Win 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year

NBA Rookie of the Year favorite

Alex Sarr (+425)

Sarr will start as the basketball betting favorite in this market, though that’s not saying much.

The No. 2 overall pick to the Washington Wizards steps into the most significant role among all rookies on Day 1. Sarr is the best player in my NBA rookie rankings, as he has the highest upside and will immediately impact the defensive end.

But Sarr’s offensive game has legitimate questions, so much so that I question if his counting stats will be good enough to claim this award. It’s certainly concerning enough to avoid his current price tag as the betting favorite.

NBA Rookie of the Year sleeper

Carlton Carrington (+4000)

While Washington’s No. 2 overall pick is the betting favorite, its No. 14 pick is actually my favorite long shot in this class.

Carlton “Bub” Carrington, the second-youngest player in the NBA Draft, has plenty of upside as the future lead guard for the Wizards. But there is potential for immediate production, specifically for a team that leans on Jordan Poole in the backcourt.

Carrington averaged 13.8 points and 4.1 assists per game in his lone collegiate season with Pittsburgh. The Baltimore native ranked No. 8 overall in Sam Vecenie’s Big Board at The Athletic, thanks to his scoring and playmaking ability.

The Wizards made a trade on draft night to land the No. 14 pick. Carrington can justify that move right away.

NBA Rookie of the Year prediction

Matas Buzelis (+1200)

This year’s NBA Rookie of the Year race is fascinating because almost nobody steps into a prominent role. Most players will be coming off the bench or have limitations in their game to limit their usage in Year 1.

But that makes me believe Buzelis is the best bet entering the season.

The Bulls are headed toward a youth movement that started by sending Alex Caruso to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Josh Giddey. Veterans DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vučević could easily play elsewhere next year.

If only one or two of those veterans find new teams, Buzelis will suddenly be thrust into a starting role as the No. 11 pick.

Buzelis was ranked as high as No. 4 on Kevin O’Connor’s big board at The Ringer. The Chicago native averaged 14.1 points per game with G League Ignite last season.

NBA Betting Splits for Rookie of the Year

Highest ticket:

• Zach Edey 24.4%
• Dalton Knecht 15.1%
• Donovan Clingan 9.2%

 Highest handle:

• Zach Edey 74%
• Dalton Knecht 6.4%
• Donovan Clingan 6.4%

2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year Voting

List of NBA Rookie of the Year Winners