Nuggets vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 19

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 19, 2024, 4:32 PM
  • The Celtics are -6.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 234.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | NBSB | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Boston, MA.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Celtics Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 18-23 against the spread, while the Celtics are 21-18 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+7.5 -115O 233.5 -110+220
Boston Celtics -7.5 -105U 233.5 -110-275

Celtics vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Friday‘s game with 71.7% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Nuggets and Celtics, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Celtics vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.9% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 98 games (+25.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 32 away games (+19.30 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+16.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 63 games (+15.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 58 of their last 90 games (+25.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 69 of their last 90 games (+24.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the Moneyline in their last 20 games at home (+20.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 31 of their last 45 games at home (+15.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+15.45 Units / 14% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 18-23 (-7.4 Units / -15.91% ROI).

  • 28-14 against the Moneyline (+4 Units / 3.06% ROI)
  • 17-24 against the Over for game total points (-9.4 Units / -20.37% ROI)
  • 24-17 against the Under for game total points (+5.3 Units / 11.47% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 21-18 (+1.25 Units / 2.77% ROI).

  • 32-9 against the Moneyline (+15.35 Units / 8.81% ROI)
  • 22-19 against the Over for game total points (+1.1 Units / 2.44% ROI)
  • 19-22 against the Under for game total points (-5.2 Units / -11.53% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 98 games (-26.25 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 24 of their last 64 games (-20.25 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 98 games (-20.20 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 94 games (-18.60 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 64 games (-18.45 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 98 games (-37.25 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 86 games (-23.70 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 32 away games (-22.45 Units / -64% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 75 games (-21.50 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 97 games (-19.55 Units / -15% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 20-5 (.800) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets are 30-10 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

The Nuggets were 44-25 (.638) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .491

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Celtics were 17-5 (.773) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Celtics are undefeated (10-0) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .583

The Celtics are 27-5 (.844) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Celtics were 25-1 (.962) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

Injury Report: Celtics vs. NuggetsFriday‘s Game, Jan. 19

  • Kristaps Porzingis (Boston Celtics): Calf, Game Time Decision
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 52% (2,785/5,407) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (5,437/10,825) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 16.2 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.9

The Celtics are shooting 41% from three (347/848) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Celtics have a TS% of 56% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (299 steals/42 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 12.4 second chance points per game (521 points/42 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.0

The Nuggets have averaged 7.5 steals per game (463 steals/62 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (449/1,382) at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,595 rebounds/41 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Celtics have averaged 38.3 defensive rebounds per game (4,707 rebounds/123 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have allowed an average of 1.20 points per shot (4,548 points/3,782 shots) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.29


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.