Nuggets vs Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 14, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -13.5 favorites vs. the Grizzlies
  • Total (Over/Under): 217.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSSM | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit FedExForum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Memphis, TN.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Grizzlies Over/Under is 216.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 37-42 against the spread, while the Grizzlies are 40-41 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-14.5 -105O 216.5 -110-900
Memphis Grizzlies +14.5 -115U 216.5 -110+600

Grizzlies vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 83.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Grizzlies.

Grizzlies vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Grizzlies will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 60.8% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 100 games (+20.05 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 58 of their last 94 games (+17.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 21 games (+15.05 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 45 away games (+14.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 92 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 53 of their last 87 games (+17.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+15.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games at home (+15.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 56 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 45 games (+12.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 37-42 (-9.2 Units / -10.32% ROI).

  • 56-25 against the Moneyline (+10.95 Units / 3.57% ROI)
  • 33-46 against the Over for game total points (-17.6 Units / -19.74% ROI)
  • 46-33 against the Under for game total points (+9.75 Units / 10.95% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 40-41 (-5.1 Units / -5.72% ROI).

  • 27-54 against the Moneyline (+1.8 Units / 1.96% ROI)
  • 37-44 against the Over for game total points (-11.4 Units / -12.79% ROI)
  • 44-37 against the Under for game total points (+3.3 Units / 3.7% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 87 games (-29.30 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 86 games (-27.70 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 83 games (-25.95 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 43 games at home (-21.85 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 86 games (-20.85 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 99 games (-24.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 92 games (-23.40 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 89 games (-23.30 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 45 away games (-21.20 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 16 away games (-18.20 Units / -71% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 26-6 (.812) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .577

The Nuggets are 26-9 (.743) when they win the turnover margin this season — 3rd-best in the NBA. The Grizzlies have averaged 15.1 turnovers per game this season — T-4th-highest in the NBA.

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Grizzlies are 3-27 (.100) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — T-worst in the NBA. The Nuggets have shot 38% from three this season — 9th-best in the NBA.

The Grizzlies are 1-27 (.036) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .208

The Grizzlies are 3-27 (.100) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .317

The Grizzlies were 26-11 (.703) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Injury Report: Grizzlies vs. NuggetsSunday‘s Game, Apr. 14

  • Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies): Shoulder, Out For Season
  • Brandon Clarke (Memphis Grizzlies): Achilles, Out
  • Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies): Ankle, Out
  • Marcus Smart (Memphis Grizzlies): Finger, Out
  • Scotty Pippen Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies): Back, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,497 assists/ 1,094 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies are shooting 43% (3,100/7,130) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Grizzlies have an eFG% of 51% this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Grizzlies had a TS% of 44% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49%

The Grizzlies are shooting 43% (1,506/3,500) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,908 rebounds/81 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have blocked 452 shots this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have allowed 11.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.6

The Nuggets have allowed an eFG% of 53% this season — 3rd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies averaged 5.8 blocks per game (473 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Grizzlies averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,022 rebounds/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Grizzlies have averaged 8.7 steals per game (708 steals/81 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Grizzlies have averaged 8.2 steals per game (664 steals/81 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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