Nuggets vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 13

  • The Nuggets are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | SUN | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Heat Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 29-34 against the spread, while the Heat are 31-32 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-3.5 -110O 217.5 -110-160
Miami Heat +3.5 -110U 217.5 -110+135

Heat vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 69.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Heat.

Heat vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 86 games (+24.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 99 games (+23.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+19.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+14.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 37 away games (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 73 games (+20.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 51 of their last 88 games (+19.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 94 games (+19.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 34 games (+16.70 Units / 42% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 29-34 (-8.4 Units / -11.74% ROI).

  • 45-20 against the Moneyline (+12.2 Units / 5.34% ROI)
  • 25-38 against the Over for game total points (-16.8 Units / -23.48% ROI)
  • 38-25 against the Under for game total points (+10.55 Units / 14.77% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 31-32 (-4.2 Units / -5.97% ROI).

  • 35-29 against the Moneyline (-2.8 Units / -2.47% ROI)
  • 24-40 against the Over for game total points (-20 Units / -28.41% ROI)
  • 40-24 against the Under for game total points (+13.6 Units / 19.32% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 96 games (-29.60 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 73 games (-27.80 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-25.00 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 80 games (-24.50 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 75 games (-20.35 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 99 games (-37.60 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 98 games (-28.90 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 93 games (-26.10 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 56 of their last 99 games (-18.60 Units / -9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 37 away games (-18.45 Units / -44% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets are 15-4 (.789) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

The Nuggets are 33-10 (.767) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 8th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 49.7 rebounds/game this season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 12-8 (.600) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Heat are 13-6 (.684) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

Injury Report: Heat vs. NuggetsWednesday‘s Game, Mar. 13

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,954/5,757) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,548 assists/ 682 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (7,176 points/135 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.6

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (933/2,711) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets have allowed 11.2 made three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.