Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 17, 2024, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -3.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
  • Total (Over/Under): 229.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Denver Nuggets visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Nuggets vs Mavericks Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 31-34 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 37-30 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+1.5 -120O 231.5 -110-105
Dallas Mavericks -1.5 +100U 231.5 -110-115

Mavericks vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 65.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 53.3% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 88 games (+26.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 99 games (+21.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 99 games (+20.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 95 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 49 of their last 80 games (+13.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 31-34 (-6.4 Units / -8.68% ROI).

  • 47-20 against the Moneyline (+14.2 Units / 6.04% ROI)
  • 25-40 against the Over for game total points (-19 Units / -25.76% ROI)
  • 40-25 against the Under for game total points (+12.55 Units / 17.04% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 37-30 (+4 Units / 5.43% ROI).

  • 38-29 against the Moneyline (-1.15 Units / -0.89% ROI)
  • 34-33 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -3.12% ROI)
  • 33-34 against the Under for game total points (-4.4 Units / -5.97% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 33 of their last 77 games (-34.80 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 78 games (-26.00 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 53 games (-17.55 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 40 games (-16.90 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 37 games at home (-16.45 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-35.50 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-30.00 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 95 games (-28.45 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 39 away games (-18.60 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 99 games (-18.05 Units / -16% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 40-7 (.851) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Mavericks have allowed 117.7 points per game this season — 9th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets were 25-4 (.862) when shooting 40% or better from three last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .702

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Mavericks are 6-1 (.857) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .580

The Mavericks are 25-8 (.758) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .631

The Mavericks were 13-17 (.433) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Mavericks are 13-7 (.650) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .574

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. NuggetsSunday‘s Game, Mar. 17

  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (157 assists/ 55 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,510 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Mavericks have averaged 42.4 points in the paint per game (2,796 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets have blocked 353 shots on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (449/1,382) at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (237 blocks/54 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Mavericks have averaged 34.5 defensive rebounds per game (1,864 rebounds/54 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Mavericks have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (541 blocks/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.