Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 31

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 31, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Thunder are -1.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSOK | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Oklahoma City, OK.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Thunder Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 20-26 against the spread, while the Thunder are 30-16 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+6.5 -115O 224.5 -110+200
Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 -105U 224.5 -110-250

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Nuggets and Thunder, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Thunder vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 54.3% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 65 of their last 100 games (+25.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 69 games (+20.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 81 games (+20.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 76 games (+18.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 36 away games (+14.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 33 of their last 51 games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 49 of their last 80 games (+14.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 1Q Spread in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+12.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 20-26 (-8.75 Units / -16.46% ROI).

  • 33-15 against the Moneyline (+8.95 Units / 6.09% ROI)
  • 17-30 against the Over for game total points (-16 Units / -30.33% ROI)
  • 30-17 against the Under for game total points (+11.3 Units / 21.4% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 30-16 (+12.35 Units / 23.91% ROI).

  • 32-15 against the Moneyline (+9.45 Units / 8.35% ROI)
  • 25-21 against the Over for game total points (+1.9 Units / 3.68% ROI)
  • 21-25 against the Under for game total points (-6.5 Units / -12.57% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 80 games (-24.15 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 38 games at home (-17.95 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 35 of their last 81 games (-13.95 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 76 games (-12.65 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 80 games (-11.30 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 100 games (-37.10 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 81 games (-28.10 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 92 games (-26.20 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 97 games (-22.70 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 21 of their last 61 games (-20.80 Units / -31% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 13-3 (.812) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .559

The Nuggets are 32-10 (.762) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 21-5 (.808) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Thunder are winless (0-4) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .088

The Thunder are 19-4 (.826) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .668

The Thunder were 20-8 (.714) when winning the rebounding margin last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .634

The Thunder are 20-13 (.606) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .491

Injury Report: Thunder vs. NuggetsWednesday‘s Game, Jan. 31

  • Isaiah Joe (Oklahoma City Thunder): Undisclosed, Game Time Decision
  • Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Julian Strawther (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Game Time Decision

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,866/5,580) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,999/5,865) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (318/770) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Thunder have an eFG% of 59% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder are shooting 51% (1,046/2,037) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (327 steals/48 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (291 blocks/64 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have blocked 331 shots on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th most among NBA teams

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have allowed 19.1 offensive rebounds per game (1,239 rebounds/65 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.4

The Thunder have allowed 9.8 offensive rebounds per game (461 rebounds/47 games) in the first half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have allowed 19.4 offensive rebounds per game (910 rebounds/47 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.6

The Thunder averaged 4.2 blocks per game (341 blocks/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.