Pacers vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 05, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks are -4.5 favorites vs. the Pacers
  • Total (Over/Under): 245.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSW+ | BSIN

The Indiana Pacers visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Pacers vs Mavericks Over/Under is 246.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 32-28 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 32-29 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers+4.5 -105O 246.5 -110+165
Dallas Mavericks -4.5 -115U 246.5 -110-200

Mavericks vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Tuesday‘s game with 69.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pacers and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Pacers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 28 games (+17.65 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 81 games (+16.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 41 away games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 away games (+11.70 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 47 games (+17.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 32 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 32-28 (+1.2 Units / 1.73% ROI).

  • 34-29 against the Moneyline (-5.55 Units / -4.71% ROI)
  • 32-29 against the Over for game total points (+0.05 Units / 0.07% ROI)
  • 29-32 against the Under for game total points (-6.15 Units / -8.89% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 32-29 (+0.15 Units / 0.22% ROI).

  • 34-27 against the Moneyline (-2.2 Units / -1.92% ROI)
  • 30-30 against the Over for game total points (-3 Units / -4.46% ROI)
  • 30-30 against the Under for game total points (-2.9 Units / -4.33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 71 games (-30.25 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 77 games (-27.90 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 47 games (-22.65 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 39 games at home (-21.85 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 48 games (-17.00 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 52 games (-26.90 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 81 games (-23.85 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 81 games (-22.10 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 36 games (-20.30 Units / -52% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 35 away games (-18.85 Units / -45% ROI)

Jump to:

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Pacers are 16-4 (.800) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .647

The Pacers are 10-29 (.256) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th-worst in the NBA. The Mavericks have made 15.1 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd-highest in the NBA.

The Pacers are 2-7 (.222) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .420

The Pacers are 3-10 (.231) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .435

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Mavericks are undefeated (18-0) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .780

The Mavericks are 25-8 (.758) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .631

The Mavericks are 20-1 (.952) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 51% this season — worst in the NBA.

The Mavericks are 7-1 (.875) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. PacersTuesday‘s Game, Mar. 5

  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Jalen Smith (Indiana Pacers): Back, Game Time Decision

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 17.3 fast break points per game (2,369 points/137 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Pacers averaged 3.1 fast break points per game (204 points/66 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Pacers have averaged 30.6 assists per game (827 assists/27 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.2

The Pacers have averaged 30.9 assists per game (1,698 assists/55 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.7

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (157 assists/ 55 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks have averaged 5.9 turnovers per game (809 turnovers/136 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks have averaged 44.1 points in the paint per game (6,004 points/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.6

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 32.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,805 rebounds/55 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Pacers averaged 5.8 blocks per game (478 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have averaged 5.8 blocks per game (318 blocks/55 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Pacers averaged 33.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,730 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 3.7 blocks per game (304 blocks/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 34.5 defensive rebounds per game (1,864 rebounds/54 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.