Pacers vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 22

  • The Warriors are -4.5 favorites vs. the Pacers
  • Total (Over/Under): 240.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSIN | NSBA

The Indiana Pacers visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in San Francisco, CA.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Pacers vs Warriors Over/Under is 239.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 37-31 against the spread, while the Warriors are 37-30 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers+4.5 -105O 239.5 -105+165
Golden State Warriors -4.5 -115U 239.5 -115-200

Warriors vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Friday‘s game with 71.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pacers and Warriors.

Warriors vs Pacers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 52.1% confidence.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 44 games (+20.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 23 away games (+14.60 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 2Q Spread in 25 of their last 38 away games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 55 games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 37-31 (+2.9 Units / 3.71% ROI).

  • 39-32 against the Moneyline (-4.3 Units / -3.18% ROI)
  • 33-36 against the Over for game total points (-6.65 Units / -8.63% ROI)
  • 36-33 against the Under for game total points (-0.3 Units / -0.39% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 37-30 (+4 Units / 5.35% ROI).

  • 36-32 against the Moneyline (-11.8 Units / -8.3% ROI)
  • 35-33 against the Over for game total points (-1.3 Units / -1.74% ROI)
  • 33-35 against the Under for game total points (-5.5 Units / -7.35% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 81 games (-19.80 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 65 games (-19.75 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 47 games at home (-19.25 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 games at home (-17.75 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 47 games at home (-15.35 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 44 games (-26.40 Units / -53% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 60 games (-25.40 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 81 games (-20.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 81 games (-18.95 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 67 games (-18.90 Units / -25% ROI)

Jump to:

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Pacers are 2-8 (.200) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .395

The Pacers are 20-7 (.741) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Pacers were 6-10 (.375) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Pacers were 13-26 (.333) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .442

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Warriors are 18-2 (.900) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .788

The Warriors were 13-12 (.520) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Warriors are 7-15 (.318) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .446

The Warriors are 18-2 (.900) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — T-7th-best in the NBA. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 50% this season — 2nd-worst in the NBA.

Injury Report: Warriors vs. PacersFriday‘s Game, Mar. 22

  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out
  • Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Jalen Smith (Indiana Pacers): Back, Game Time Decision

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 17.3 fast break points per game (2,631 points/152 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Pacers have averaged 58.1 points in the paint per game (1,976 points/34 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.0

The Pacers averaged 3.1 fast break points per game (204 points/66 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Pacers have averaged 57.6 points in the paint per game (4,034 points/70 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.4

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors averaged 30.5 assists per game (1,250 assists/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Warriors averaged 29.2 assists per game (1,196 assists/41 games) on the road last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.0

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,351 rebounds/70 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (452 blocks/75 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Pacers averaged 5.8 blocks per game (478 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers blocked 478 shots last season — 2nd most among NBA teams

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,999 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,479 rebounds/68 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (295 blocks/68 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Warriors have averaged 6.8 steals per game (462 steals/68 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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