Pelicans vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 22

  • The Heat are -3.5 favorites vs. the Pelicans
  • Total (Over/Under): 207.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | WVUE

The New Orleans Pelicans visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Pelicans vs Heat Over/Under is 208.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pelicans are 38-29 against the spread, while the Heat are 33-35 against the spread.


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Pelicans vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
New Orleans Pelicans+3.5 -115O 208.5 -105+135
Miami Heat -3.5 -105U 208.5 -115-160

Heat vs Pelicans Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 65.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pelicans and Heat.

Heat vs Pelicans Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pelicans will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 56 of their last 80 games (+33.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 65 games (+16.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1H Spread in 44 of their last 71 games (+14.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 41 away games (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 78 games (+23.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 99 games (+20.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 39 games (+19.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+16.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games (+16.75 Units / 39% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 38-29 (+6.1 Units / 8.04% ROI).

  • 42-27 against the Moneyline (+7.65 Units / 5% ROI)
  • 30-39 against the Over for game total points (-12.9 Units / -17% ROI)
  • 39-30 against the Under for game total points (+6 Units / 7.91% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 33-35 (-5.5 Units / -7.25% ROI).

  • 38-31 against the Moneyline (-1.6 Units / -1.31% ROI)
  • 25-44 against the Over for game total points (-23.4 Units / -30.83% ROI)
  • 44-25 against the Under for game total points (+16.5 Units / 21.74% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 78 games (-31.20 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 37 of their last 100 games (-29.95 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 85 games (-28.00 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 38 games (-22.60 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 80 games (-21.85 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 80 games (-21.40 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 59 games (-18.50 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 80 games (-16.60 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 79 games (-13.30 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 33 games (-12.00 Units / -32% ROI)

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New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pelicans were 22-14 (.611) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Pelicans were 14-20 (.412) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Pelicans were 10-8 (.556) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Pelicans are 14-2 (.875) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — best in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 13.3 made three-pointers per game this season — T-9th-worst in the NBA.

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

The Heat are 12-5 (.706) when their opponents turns the ball over 20 or more times since the start of the 2022-23 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .395

Injury Report: Heat vs. PelicansFriday‘s Game, Mar. 22

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Jose Alvarado (New Orleans Pelicans): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Brandon Ingram (New Orleans Pelicans): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Dyson Daniels (New Orleans Pelicans): Knee, Out
  • CJ McCollum (New Orleans Pelicans): Ankle, Out
  • Naji Marshall (New Orleans Pelicans): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans are shooting 49% (2,962/6,053) this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Pelicans have averaged 52.0 points in the paint per game (3,588 points/69 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.4

The Pelicans averaged 14.7 fast break points per game (1,206 points/82 games) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

The Pelicans have a 26% free throw rate (1,595 free throw attempts/6,053 field goal attempts) this season — 7th highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 5.2 fast break points per game (788 points/151 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans averaged 8.3 steals per game (681 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Pelicans have allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (947/2,873) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (487/1,491) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Pelicans averaged 4.1 blocks per game (337 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (248 blocks/78 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (478 blocks/151 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (235 blocks/69 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2


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