Pelicans vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 12, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -8.5 favorites vs. the Pelicans
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | WVUE | ESPN

The New Orleans Pelicans visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Pelicans vs Nuggets Over/Under is 229.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pelicans are 22-15 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 17-21 against the spread.


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Pelicans vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
New Orleans Pelicans+6.5 -115O 229.5 -105+200
Denver Nuggets -6.5 -105U 229.5 -115-250

Nuggets vs Pelicans Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 78.4% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Pelicans and Nuggets, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Nuggets vs Pelicans Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pelicans will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 43 of their last 58 games (+31.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1H Spread in 41 of their last 58 games (+23.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 52 games (+21.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 2Q Spread in 35 of their last 52 games (+16.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 65 of their last 100 games (+25.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+17.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 50 games at home (+16.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games (+15.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 22-15 (+5.5 Units / 13.16% ROI).

  • 23-15 against the Moneyline (+3.75 Units / 5.51% ROI)
  • 18-20 against the Over for game total points (-4 Units / -9.57% ROI)
  • 20-18 against the Under for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 17-21 (-6.2 Units / -14.37% ROI).

  • 26-13 against the Moneyline (+3 Units / 2.45% ROI)
  • 15-23 against the Over for game total points (-10.3 Units / -24.01% ROI)
  • 23-15 against the Under for game total points (+6.5 Units / 15.15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 100 games (-37.90 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 83 games (-24.70 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 72 games (-22.40 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 94 games (-18.05 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 62 games (-17.50 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 79 games (-26.80 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 79 games (-24.10 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 79 games (-19.75 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 79 games (-19.70 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 79 games (-16.45 Units / -19% ROI)

Jump to:

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Pelicans were 13-2 (.867) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

The Pelicans are 9-2 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .596

The Pelicans were 2-16 (.111) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

The Pelicans are 7-2 (.778) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .574

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 30-9 (.769) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

The Nuggets are 19-5 (.792) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 11-2 (.846) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .569

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. PelicansFriday‘s Game, Jan. 12

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Matt Ryan (New Orleans Pelicans): Elbow, Out
  • Larry Nance Jr. (New Orleans Pelicans): Ribs, Out

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans are shooting 40% from three (225/565) on the road this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Pelicans have an eFG% of 56% this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Pelicans have made 11.9 three-pointers per game this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.9

The Pelicans averaged 53.3 points in the paint per game (4,372 points/82 games) last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.6 (587 assists/ 229 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.4 (1,155 assists/ 481 TOs) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,789/5,468) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (238/763) in the first half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans have averaged 36.1 defensive rebounds per game (1,371 rebounds/38 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Pelicans have allowed opponents to shoot 44% (740/1,697) in the first half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Pelicans allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (487/1,491) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.5 steals per game (450 steals/60 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have blocked 212 shots this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets have averaged 5.0 blocks per game (303 blocks/61 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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