Pistons vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 05, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -11.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 217.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSDT | SUN

The Detroit Pistons visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Pistons vs Heat Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pistons are 29-30 against the spread, while the Heat are 31-29 against the spread.


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Pistons vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Detroit Pistons+11.5 -110O 217.5 -115+475
Miami Heat -11.5 -110U 217.5 -105-650

Heat vs Pistons Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Tuesday‘s game with 88.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pistons and Heat.

Heat vs Pistons Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+15.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 away games (+11.25 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 90 games (+26.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 69 games (+18.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 30 games (+17.30 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 56 of their last 93 games (+16.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 84 games (+16.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 29-30 (-4 Units / -6.06% ROI).

  • 9-51 against the Moneyline (-28.35 Units / -45.54% ROI)
  • 30-29 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -2.88% ROI)
  • 29-30 against the Under for game total points (-4 Units / -6.06% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 31-29 (-0.8 Units / -1.21% ROI).

  • 34-26 against the Moneyline (+4.5 Units / 4.54% ROI)
  • 23-37 against the Over for game total points (-17.7 Units / -26.82% ROI)
  • 37-23 against the Under for game total points (+11.7 Units / 17.73% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 34 of their last 92 games (-26.05 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 69 games (-25.50 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 76 games (-23.35 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.10 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 71 games (-16.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 78 games (-40.75 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 76 games (-22.70 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 78 games (-19.20 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 71 games (-16.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 65 games (-16.20 Units / -24% ROI)

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Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pistons were 4-44 (.083) when they lose the turnover margin last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Pistons are winless (0-23) when losing the rebounding margin this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .353

The Pistons are 9-79 (.102) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

The Pistons are 4-62 (.061) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .361

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 34-10 (.773) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Heat were 17-3 (.850) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Heat are 6-7 (.462) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .560

Injury Report: Heat vs. PistonsTuesday‘s Game, Mar. 5

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Isaiah Stewart (Detroit Pistons): Suspension, Out
  • Quentin Grimes (Detroit Pistons): Knee, Game Time Decision

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (886 assists/ 615 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,884 assists/ 1,237 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons averaged 21.6 assists per game (886 assists/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.0

The Pistons have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (1,374 assists/ 806 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Heat have averaged 5.3 fast break points per game (716 points/135 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 5.8 steals per game (303 steals/52 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Pistons averaged 3.8 blocks per game (308 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pistons averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,756 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons have averaged 6.5 steals per game (877 steals/134 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.