Raptors vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 14, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -15.5 favorites vs. the Raptors
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | SNET

The Toronto Raptors visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Raptors vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Raptors are 34-46 against the spread, while the Heat are 40-39 against the spread.


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Raptors vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Toronto Raptors O
Miami Heat U

Heat vs Raptors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 92.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Raptors and Heat.

Heat vs Raptors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 57.4% confidence.


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  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 31 away games (+10.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 away games (+9.10 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+7.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 51 games (+17.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 90 games (+16.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 55 of their last 100 games (+14.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 100 games (+13.55 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 57 of their last 99 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Raptors have gone 34-46 (-16.6 Units / -18.63% ROI).

  • 25-56 against the Moneyline (-30.05 Units / -26.75% ROI)
  • 42-39 against the Over for game total points (-0.9 Units / -1.01% ROI)
  • 39-42 against the Under for game total points (-7.1 Units / -7.98% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 40-39 (-2.9 Units / -3.25% ROI).

  • 45-36 against the Moneyline (-0.5 Units / -0.31% ROI)
  • 34-47 against the Over for game total points (-17.7 Units / -19.87% ROI)
  • 47-34 against the Under for game total points (+9.6 Units / 10.77% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 97 games (-27.70 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 38 of their last 99 games (-26.90 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 90 games (-25.50 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 84 games (-19.80 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 50 games (-19.30 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 80 games (-31.05 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 76 games (-20.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 81 games (-20.40 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 31 of their last 76 games (-20.25 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only covered the Spread in 32 of their last 79 games (-18.60 Units / -21% ROI)

Jump to:

Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Raptors were undefeated (8-0) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Raptors are 5-21 (.192) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Raptors are 19-51 (.271) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Raptors are 12-26 (.316) when they lose the turnover margin this season — 6th-worst in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 12.6 turnovers per game this season — T-4th-lowest in the NBA.

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Toronto Raptors

The Heat are 16-2 (.889) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — T-10th-best in the NBA. The Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 49% this season — 6th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat are 32-8 (.800) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Raptors have allowed 118.8 points per game this season — 7th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat were 11-7 (.611) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Heat are 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .413

Injury Report: Heat vs. RaptorsSunday‘s Game, Apr. 14

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Markquis Nowell (Toronto Raptors): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors): Knee, Out

Toronto Raptors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (987 assists/ 480 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Raptors have averaged 18.8 fast break points per game (1,523 points/81 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

The Raptors have averaged 18.3 fast break points per game (2,984 points/163 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Raptors averaged 5.8 turnovers per game (476 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 5.3 fast break points per game (868 points/163 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Toronto Raptors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors averaged 9.4 steals per game (772 steals/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Raptors stole the ball 772 times last season — most among NBA teams

The Raptors have averaged 32.9 defensive rebounds per game (5,356 rebounds/163 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Raptors averaged 31.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,615 rebounds/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (265 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (251 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (516 blocks/163 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.