Spurs vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 09, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Warriors are -9.5 favorites vs. the Spurs
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Watch the game on NSBA | BSSW

The San Antonio Spurs visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in San Francisco, CA.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-105).

The Spurs vs Warriors Over/Under is 227.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Spurs are 31-32 against the spread, while the Warriors are 34-27 against the spread.


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Spurs vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
San Antonio Spurs+11.5 -115O 227.5 -115+425
Golden State Warriors -11.5 -105U 227.5 -105-600

Warriors vs Spurs Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Saturday‘s game with 84.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Spurs and Warriors.

Warriors vs Spurs Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.


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  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 78 games (+17.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+13.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 4Q Spread in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 3Q Spread in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 55 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 31-32 (-4.1 Units / -5.92% ROI).

  • 13-50 against the Moneyline (-24.25 Units / -36.77% ROI)
  • 30-31 against the Over for game total points (-4.15 Units / -5.98% ROI)
  • 31-30 against the Under for game total points (-2 Units / -2.89% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 34-27 (+4.3 Units / 6.3% ROI).

  • 33-29 against the Moneyline (-3.9 Units / -3.18% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Over for game total points (-3.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Under for game total points (-3.15 Units / -4.62% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 57 games (-18.00 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 30 of their last 75 games (-17.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 46 games at home (-16.80 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 75 games (-14.65 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 28 games (-14.10 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 58 games (-29.55 Units / -49% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 2Q Spread in 27 of their last 75 games (-22.00 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 65 games (-19.45 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 80 games (-17.15 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 32 away games (-16.90 Units / -52% ROI)

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San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Spurs are 1-7 (.125) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .420

The Spurs were winless (0-36) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .297

The Spurs are 11-58 (.159) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .361

The Spurs are 16-59 (.213) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Warriors are 14-20 (.412) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Warriors were 13-12 (.520) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Warriors are 20-4 (.833) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — T-4th-best in the NBA. The Spurs have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three this season — 4th-worst in the NBA.

The Warriors were 2-12 (.143) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

Injury Report: Warriors vs. SpursSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 9

  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out
  • Marcus Morris Sr. (San Antonio Spurs): Not Injury Related, Out
  • Charles Bassey (San Antonio Spurs): Knee, Out For Season

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs are shooting 33% from three (331/999) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Spurs are shooting 32% from three (317/982) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Spurs averaged 1.19 points per shot (4,551 points/3,809 shots) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Spurs have averaged 1.20 points per shot (7,631 points/6,349 shots) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Warriors have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (296 points/51 games) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Warriors averaged 29.8 assists per game (2,446 assists/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three (517/1,300) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Spurs allowed a TS% of 54% in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

The Spurs allowed opponents to shoot 51% (1,820/3,571) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Spurs allowed an eFG% of 59% on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 36.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,870 rebounds/51 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Warriors have averaged 6.6 steals per game (338 steals/51 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Warriors have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (254 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Warriors have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/51 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.