Suns vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 29, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -3.5 favorites vs. the Suns
  • Total (Over/Under): 229.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | SUN | AZFS

The Phoenix Suns visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Suns vs Heat Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Suns are 16-28 against the spread, while the Heat are 20-26 against the spread.


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Suns vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phoenix Suns+3.5 -115O 230.5 -110+125
Miami Heat -3.5 -105U 230.5 -110-155

Heat vs Suns Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 61.8% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Suns and Heat, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Heat vs Suns Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Suns will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 58.3% confidence.


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  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 58 of their last 84 games (+29.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 86 games (+24.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 57 games (+21.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 3Q Spread in 48 of their last 76 games (+18.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 42 away games (+16.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 70 games (+19.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 76 games (+17.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 49 of their last 79 games (+17.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 18 games at home (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 53 of their last 88 games (+13.70 Units / 14% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 16-28 (-15 Units / -29.47% ROI).

  • 26-20 against the Moneyline (-7.6 Units / -6.85% ROI)
  • 23-23 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 23-23 against the Under for game total points (-2.3 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 20-26 (-8.55 Units / -16.9% ROI).

  • 24-22 against the Moneyline (-4.15 Units / -5.56% ROI)
  • 20-26 against the Over for game total points (-8.6 Units / -17% ROI)
  • 26-20 against the Under for game total points (+4 Units / 7.91% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 92 games (-24.10 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 95 games (-23.15 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 78 games (-20.90 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 49 games (-20.25 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 16 of their last 49 games (-18.80 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 84 games (-38.55 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 86 games (-35.20 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 4Q Spread in 21 of their last 73 games (-33.60 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 73 games (-28.50 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the Spread in 26 of their last 73 games (-23.70 Units / -29% ROI)

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Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Suns are 0-13 (.000) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2022-23 season — T-worst in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 110.4 points per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd-best in the NBA.

The Suns are 10-2 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .587

The Suns are 44-27 (.620) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

The Suns are 19-8 (.704) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .595

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Heat are 5-6 (.455) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

The Heat were 11-7 (.611) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Heat were 32-21 (.604) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Heat were 34-10 (.773) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

Injury Report: Heat vs. SunsMonday‘s Game, Jan. 29

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • R.J. Hampton (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat): Hip, Game Time Decision
  • Haywood Highsmith (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Bradley Beal (Phoenix Suns): Back, Out
  • Damion Lee (Phoenix Suns): Knee, Out

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 5.4 second chance points per game (247 points/46 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Suns averaged 5.4 fast break points per game (441 points/82 games) in the first half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Suns averaged 5.1 fast break points per game (422 points/82 games) in the second half last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.5

The Suns have averaged 1.36 points per shot (5,353 points/3,927 shots) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 53.6 points per game (2,466 points/46 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.3

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns averaged 5.3 blocks per game (432 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Suns have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (271 blocks/46 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Suns have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (362 blocks/66 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Suns have blocked 271 shots this season — tied for 7th most among NBA teams

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (154 blocks/46 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (200 blocks/65 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,735 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.