Suns vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 27

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Phoenix Suns logo on the left and Denver Nuggets logo on the right
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 27, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -7.5 favorites vs. the Suns
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | ALT | KTVK

The Phoenix Suns visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Suns vs Nuggets Over/Under is 227.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Suns are 29-41 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 33-37 against the spread.


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Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phoenix Suns+7.5 -115O 227.5 -105+225
Denver Nuggets -7.5 -105U 227.5 -115-275

Nuggets vs Suns Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 73.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Suns and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Suns Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Suns will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 56 of their last 91 games (+15.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+14.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+7.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 1H Spread in 44 of their last 77 games (+7.10 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 93 games (+28.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 62 of their last 99 games (+19.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 53 of their last 85 games (+16.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 83 games (+13.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 55 of their last 85 games (+13.30 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 29-41 (-16.1 Units / -20.33% ROI).

  • 42-30 against the Moneyline (-9.6 Units / -5.16% ROI)
  • 32-39 against the Over for game total points (-10.95 Units / -13.82% ROI)
  • 39-32 against the Under for game total points (+3.8 Units / 4.8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 33-37 (-7.7 Units / -9.72% ROI).

  • 51-21 against the Moneyline (+17 Units / 6.64% ROI)
  • 29-41 against the Over for game total points (-16.1 Units / -20.32% ROI)
  • 41-29 against the Under for game total points (+9.15 Units / 11.56% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 99 games (-33.40 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-25.60 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 99 games (-22.70 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 100 games (-14.90 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 38 of their last 85 games (-14.75 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 4Q Spread in 27 of their last 90 games (-42.40 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 91 games (-28.85 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 83 games (-23.75 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the Spread in 34 of their last 86 games (-21.00 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 52 games (-18.35 Units / -32% ROI)

Jump to:

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Suns were 5-11 (.312) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Suns were 24-5 (.828) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .777

The Suns are 26-5 (.839) when turning the ball over fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Suns are 15-4 (.789) when turning the ball over fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 25-7 (.781) when they win the turnover margin this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Suns have averaged 14.9 turnovers per game this season — T-5th-highest in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 10-2 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .602

The Nuggets are 25-5 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .577

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. SunsWednesday‘s Game, Mar. 27

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Jusuf Nurkic (Phoenix Suns): Ankle, Out
  • Bradley Beal (Phoenix Suns): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • Damion Lee (Phoenix Suns): Knee, Out

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns averaged 10.5 fast break points per game (863 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

The Suns had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (1,066 assists/ 557 TOs) in the second half last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns averaged 5.1 fast break points per game (422 points/82 games) in the second half last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.5

The Suns have averaged 5.6 fast break points per game (859 points/154 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,109 assists/ 908 TOs) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns averaged 5.3 blocks per game (432 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Suns have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,628 rebounds/72 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Suns blocked 432 shots last season — 5th most among NBA teams

The Suns have blocked 439 shots this season — 5th most among NBA teams

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (509 steals/72 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 11.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.6

The Nuggets allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game last season — tied for 3rd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3

The Nuggets have averaged 5.1 blocks per game (394 blocks/78 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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