Thunder vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 24

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 24, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Bucks are -3.5 favorites vs. the Thunder
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | BSWI | BSOK

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Thunder vs Bucks Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 40-28 against the spread, while the Bucks are 31-38 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder+2.5 -115O 233.5 -110+110
Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 -105U 233.5 -110-135

Bucks vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Sunday‘s game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Bucks.

Bucks vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 54.4% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 73 games (+16.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 43 of their last 73 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 45 of their last 77 games (+10.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 33 games at home (+12.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 50 of their last 85 games (+10.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1H Spread in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+9.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 40-28 (+9.2 Units / 12.12% ROI).

  • 49-20 against the Moneyline (+14.15 Units / 6.17% ROI)
  • 35-30 against the Over for game total points (+2 Units / 2.63% ROI)
  • 30-35 against the Under for game total points (-8.4 Units / -11.08% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 31-38 (-10.8 Units / -14.04% ROI).

  • 45-25 against the Moneyline (-10.05 Units / -4.07% ROI)
  • 35-35 against the Over for game total points (-3.5 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 35-35 against the Under for game total points (-3.5 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 77 games (-27.00 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 34 of their last 85 games (-23.35 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 42 games at home (-21.80 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 63 games (-19.00 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 85 games (-17.95 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 77 games (-19.60 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 66 games (-17.15 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 79 games (-16.45 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 45 games (-15.15 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 36 of their last 80 games (-13.05 Units / -14% ROI)

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Thunder are winless (0-4) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .091

The Thunder were undefeated (9-0) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

The Thunder are winless (0-7) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .151

The Thunder are 35-13 (.729) when they win the turnover margin this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Bucks were 27-3 (.900) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Bucks were 25-7 (.781) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks are 26-7 (.788) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have allowed 13.4 made three-pointers per game this season — T-5th-worst in the NBA.

Injury Report: Bucks vs. ThunderSunday‘s Game, Mar. 24

  • Khris Middleton (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Out
  • Oklahoma City Thunder – No Injuries Reported

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 40% from three (471/1,165) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 10.6 second chance points per game (361 points/34 games) on the road this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Thunder have averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (794 points/69 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 1.52 points per shot (1,196 points/789 shots) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.33

The Bucks have an eFG% of 58% in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Bucks have 24.8 free throw attempts per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.0

The Bucks have averaged 1.40 points per shot (4,187 points/2,988 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 6.7 blocks per game (463 blocks/69 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Thunder have averaged 8.4 steals per game (578 steals/69 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Thunder averaged 8.2 steals per game (676 steals/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Thunder averaged 4.2 blocks per game (341 blocks/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 38.4 defensive rebounds per game (5,840 rebounds/152 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.21 points per shot (4,679 points/3,854 shots) on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (4,607 points/3,889 shots) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.