Thunder vs Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 04, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Lakers are -1.5 favorites vs. the Thunder
  • Total (Over/Under): 238.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | SPEC | BSOK

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST in Los Angeles, CA.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Thunder vs Lakers Over/Under is 238.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 38-21 against the spread, while the Lakers are 28-35 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Lakers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder-1.5 -110O 238.5 -110-130
Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 -110U 238.5 -110+105

Lakers vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Lakers will win Monday‘s game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Lakers.

Lakers vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Lakers will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 52.1% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 41 of their last 64 games (+16.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 33 of their last 51 games (+14.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 64 games (+14.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 68 games (+14.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 45 of their last 77 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 53 of their last 82 games (+20.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 47 games at home (+14.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 75% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 38-21 (+14.85 Units / 22.5% ROI).

  • 42-18 against the Moneyline (+11.6 Units / 6.99% ROI)
  • 32-24 against the Over for game total points (+5.6 Units / 8.47% ROI)
  • 24-32 against the Under for game total points (-11.1 Units / -16.84% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 28-35 (-10.55 Units / -15.21% ROI).

  • 34-29 against the Moneyline (+7.5 Units / 6.08% ROI)
  • 33-29 against the Over for game total points (+1.1 Units / 1.59% ROI)
  • 29-33 against the Under for game total points (-7.35 Units / -10.6% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 82 games (-29.25 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 96 games (-20.45 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 39 games (-19.75 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 97 games (-18.45 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 4Q Spread in 15 of their last 46 games (-18.30 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 57 games (-18.35 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 30 of their last 75 games (-17.05 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 81 games (-16.60 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 80 games (-14.50 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 79 games (-14.15 Units / -16% ROI)

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Thunder are undefeated (12-0) when winning the rebounding margin this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .647

The Thunder are winless (0-5) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .169

The Thunder were undefeated (9-0) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

The Thunder are 38-10 (.792) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Lakers have allowed 117.7 points per game this season — 10th-worst in the NBA.

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Lakers are 7-3 (.700) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — T-10th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have allowed 13.5 made three-pointers per game this season — T-5th-worst in the NBA.

The Lakers were 20-16 (.556) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Lakers are 11-1 (.917) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

The Lakers were 9-24 (.273) when losing the rebounding margin last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366

Injury Report: Lakers vs. ThunderMonday‘s Game, Mar. 4

  • Gabe Vincent (Los Angeles Lakers): Knee, Out
  • Cam Reddish (Los Angeles Lakers): Ankle, Out
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (Los Angeles Lakers): Foot, Out
  • Christian Wood (Los Angeles Lakers): Knee, Out
  • Oklahoma City Thunder – No Injuries Reported

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have an eFG% of 58% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (369/893) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 10.9 second chance points per game (580 points/53 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 4.4 second chance points per game (237 points/54 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Lakers have averaged 10.0 second chance points per game (541 points/54 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Lakers have averaged 10.1 second chance points per game (272 points/27 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Lakers had 26.6 free throw attempts per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have allowed 19.2 offensive rebounds per game (1,017 rebounds/53 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.5

The Thunder have allowed 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (1,253 rebounds/135 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have allowed 19.0 offensive rebounds per game (1,276 rebounds/67 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.4

The Thunder averaged 4.2 blocks per game (341 blocks/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 37.6 defensive rebounds per game (5,107 rebounds/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,116 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers averaged 6.4 steals per game (526 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Lakers have 426 steals this season — tied for 5th most among NBA teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.