Thunder vs Suns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 3

  • The Thunder are -5.5 favorites vs. the Suns
  • Total (Over/Under): 233.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | KTVK | BSOK

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Footprint Center to take on the Phoenix Suns on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EST in Phoenix, AZ.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Thunder vs Suns Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 37-21 against the spread, while the Suns are 24-34 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Suns Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder-5.5 -110O 233.5 -110-225
Phoenix Suns +5.5 -110U 233.5 -110+180

Suns vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 69.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Suns.

Suns vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Suns will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.3% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 40 of their last 63 games (+15.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 67 games (+15.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 63 games (+13.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 45 of their last 76 games (+13.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 59 of their last 89 games (+26.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 48 games at home (+23.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 88 games (+22.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 3Q Spread in 54 of their last 90 games (+15.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 37-21 (+13.85 Units / 21.34% ROI).

  • 41-18 against the Moneyline (+10.6 Units / 6.45% ROI)
  • 32-23 against the Over for game total points (+6.7 Units / 10.31% ROI)
  • 23-32 against the Under for game total points (-12.1 Units / -18.67% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 24-34 (-13.65 Units / -20.57% ROI).

  • 35-25 against the Moneyline (-7.75 Units / -5.22% ROI)
  • 27-33 against the Over for game total points (-9.3 Units / -14.09% ROI)
  • 33-27 against the Under for game total points (+3.3 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 4Q Spread in 26 of their last 87 games (-37.40 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 89 games (-35.70 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 87 games (-33.65 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 90 games (-33.15 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the Spread in 34 of their last 87 games (-22.35 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 56 games (-19.35 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 81 games (-18.75 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 30 of their last 74 games (-15.85 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 81 games (-15.65 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 48 games (-13.70 Units / -26% ROI)

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Thunder are undefeated (12-0) when winning the rebounding margin this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .647

The Thunder were 3-4 (.429) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Thunder are 13-5 (.722) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .580

The Thunder are 1-3 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Suns are winless (0-13) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .089

The Suns were 29-16 (.644) when they win the turnover margin last season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Suns are 11-2 (.846) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

The Suns are 12-4 (.750) when they win the turnover margin this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

Injury Report: Suns vs. ThunderSunday‘s Game, Mar. 3

  • Jusuf Nurkic (Phoenix Suns): Ankle, Out
  • Bradley Beal (Phoenix Suns): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • Damion Lee (Phoenix Suns): Knee, Out
  • Oklahoma City Thunder – No Injuries Reported

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (369/893) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 10.9 second chance points per game (580 points/53 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Thunder have averaged 10.5 second chance points per game (273 points/26 games) on the road this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns averaged 10.5 fast break points per game (431 points/41 games) on the road last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (153 assists/ 121 TOs) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have averaged 1.37 points per shot (6,222 points/4,545 shots) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Suns have an eFG% of 57% this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have allowed 9.8 offensive rebounds per game (519 rebounds/53 games) in the first half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder averaged 34.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,811 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Thunder have allowed 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (1,253 rebounds/135 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder averaged 4.2 blocks per game (341 blocks/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (316 blocks/53 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Suns have averaged 35.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,895 rebounds/53 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Suns blocked 432 shots last season — 5th most among NBA teams

The Suns averaged 5.3 blocks per game (432 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.