Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 19

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 19, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -4.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
  • Total (Over/Under): 198.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under is 199.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 47-44 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 43-48 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves+4.5 -110O 199.5 -110+165
Denver Nuggets -4.5 -110U 199.5 -110-200

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 62.8% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 50 of their last 80 games (+16.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 44 away games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 away games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 100 games (+16.30 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 58 of their last 98 games (+15.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 99 games (+15.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+13.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 56 of their last 93 games (+13.25 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 47-44 (-1.5 Units / -1.48% ROI).

  • 63-29 against the Moneyline (+12.1 Units / 3.99% ROI)
  • 48-44 against the Over for game total points (-0.4 Units / -0.4% ROI)
  • 44-48 against the Under for game total points (-8.8 Units / -8.7% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 43-48 (-9.8 Units / -9.58% ROI).

  • 64-29 against the Moneyline (+12.5 Units / 3.73% ROI)
  • 38-53 against the Over for game total points (-20.3 Units / -19.83% ROI)
  • 53-38 against the Under for game total points (+11.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 100 games (-29.55 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 99 games (-27.10 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 99 games (-24.80 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 35 of their last 64 games (-18.30 Units / -11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 98 games (-16.95 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 42 of their last 83 games (-29.95 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 85 games (-26.05 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 66 games (-25.00 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 86 games (-21.60 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 85 games (-21.10 Units / -14% ROI)

Jump to:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are 25-12 (.676) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Timberwolves are 14-5 (.737) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Timberwolves are 24-10 (.706) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Timberwolves are 25-8 (.758) when they win the turnover margin this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 26-9 (.743) when they win the turnover margin this season — 3rd-best in the NBA. The Timberwolves have averaged 14.2 turnovers per game this season — 9th-highest in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .579

The Nuggets are 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesSunday‘s Game, May 19

  • Collin Gillespie (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out For Season
  • Jaylen Clark (Minnesota Timberwolves): Achilles, Out For Season

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves averaged 1.32 points per shot (9,494 points/7,167 shots) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Timberwolves averaged 14.9 offensive rebounds per game (1,222 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.3

The Timberwolves have an eFG% of 56% this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Timberwolves averaged 12.3 second chance points per game (1,011 points/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (1,270 assists/ 513 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,971 rebounds/82 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Timberwolves have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (496 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Timberwolves have allowed an average of 1.21 points per shot (4,222 points/3,480 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 50% at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Nuggets have blocked 457 shots this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (933/2,711) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%


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