Warriors vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 26

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 26, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Warriors are -1.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | NSBA

The Golden State Warriors visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Warriors vs Heat Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 37-32 against the spread, while the Heat are 34-36 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors-2.5 -115O 218.5 -115-155
Miami Heat +2.5 -105U 218.5 -105+125

Heat vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Heat.

Heat vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 55.5% confidence.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 away games (+17.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+10.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 away games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 80 games (+23.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 95 games (+19.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+18.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 41 games (+17.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+16.65 Units / 37% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 37-32 (+1.8 Units / 2.34% ROI).

  • 36-34 against the Moneyline (-14.65 Units / -10.1% ROI)
  • 36-34 against the Over for game total points (-1.4 Units / -1.82% ROI)
  • 34-36 against the Under for game total points (-5.6 Units / -7.27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 34-36 (-5.6 Units / -7.17% ROI).

  • 39-32 against the Moneyline (-2 Units / -1.6% ROI)
  • 26-45 against the Over for game total points (-23.5 Units / -30.09% ROI)
  • 45-26 against the Under for game total points (+16.4 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 100 games (-32.10 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 80 games (-31.30 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 87 games (-26.00 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 40 games (-22.75 Units / -49% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 82 games (-22.00 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 83 games (-20.10 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 67 games (-19.90 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 78 games (-19.05 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 41 of their last 90 games (-14.60 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 57 games (-14.35 Units / -22% ROI)

Jump to:

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

Keys to the game – away

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

Keys to the game – home

Injury Report: Heat vs. WarriorsTuesday‘s Game, Mar. 26

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors have made 15.8 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

Home Team Offense Stories

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

Away Team Defense Stories

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

Home Team Defense Stories


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.