Warriors vs Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 16, 2024, 5:31 PM
  • The Lakers are -2.5 favorites vs. the Warriors
  • Total (Over/Under): 233.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Golden State Warriors visit Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Los Angeles, CA.

The Lakers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Warriors vs Lakers Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 35-29 against the spread, while the Lakers are 31-37 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Lakers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors+1.5 -105O 233.5 -115+110
Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 -115U 233.5 -105-135

Lakers vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Lakers will win Saturday‘s game with 65.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Lakers.

Lakers vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 away games (+17.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 21 of their last 31 away games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 away games (+9.25 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 56 of their last 87 games (+20.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 47 games at home (+15.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 35-29 (+3.1 Units / 4.34% ROI).

  • 34-31 against the Moneyline (-11.5 Units / -8.64% ROI)
  • 32-33 against the Over for game total points (-4.3 Units / -6.01% ROI)
  • 33-32 against the Under for game total points (-2.2 Units / -3.08% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 31-37 (-9.7 Units / -12.97% ROI).

  • 37-31 against the Moneyline (+7.55 Units / 5.77% ROI)
  • 36-31 against the Over for game total points (+1.9 Units / 2.54% ROI)
  • 31-36 against the Under for game total points (-8.55 Units / -11.44% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 87 games (-32.75 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 39 of their last 94 games (-22.30 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 88 games (-21.25 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 1H Spread in 37 of their last 88 games (-20.85 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-19.60 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 62 games (-21.75 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 32 of their last 78 games (-20.65 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 39 of their last 90 games (-18.85 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 73 games (-15.90 Units / -11% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 22 games (-13.70 Units / -57% ROI)

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Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Warriors were 7-11 (.389) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Warriors were 1-16 (.059) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .188

The Warriors are 21-4 (.840) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Lakers have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three this season — T-7th-worst in the NBA.

The Warriors are 2-11 (.154) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .220

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Lakers were 20-16 (.556) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Lakers are 11-1 (.917) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

The Lakers are 33-22 (.600) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .546

The Lakers are 5-21 (.192) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

Injury Report: Lakers vs. WarriorsSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 16

  • Gabe Vincent (Los Angeles Lakers): Knee, Out
  • Cam Reddish (Los Angeles Lakers): Ankle, Out
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (Los Angeles Lakers): Foot, Out
  • Christian Wood (Los Angeles Lakers): Knee, Out
  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Warriors averaged 30.5 assists per game (1,250 assists/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 4.4 second chance points per game (237 points/54 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Lakers have averaged 17.0 fast break points per game (2,318 points/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Lakers have averaged 10.1 second chance points per game (272 points/27 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Lakers have averaged 10.0 second chance points per game (541 points/54 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 36.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,870 rebounds/51 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Warriors averaged 3.9 blocks per game (323 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Warriors have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/51 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Warriors averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,999 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,116 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have averaged 7.0 steals per game (952 steals/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Lakers have averaged 37.6 defensive rebounds per game (5,107 rebounds/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have averaged 7.9 steals per game (426 steals/54 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.