Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 05, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Mavericks are -4.5 favorites vs. the Warriors
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Watch the game on NSBA | WFAA

The Golden State Warriors visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Warriors vs Mavericks Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 42-33 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 44-32 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors+4.5 -110O 225.5 -110+155
Dallas Mavericks -4.5 -110U 225.5 -110-190

Mavericks vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Friday‘s game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 62.8% confidence.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 47 away games (+14.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 away games (+13.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 away games (+10.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+10.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 47 games (+18.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 42-33 (+5.7 Units / 6.82% ROI).

  • 42-34 against the Moneyline (-8.2 Units / -5.02% ROI)
  • 38-38 against the Over for game total points (-3.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 38-38 against the Under for game total points (-3.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 44-32 (+8.8 Units / 10.54% ROI).

  • 46-30 against the Moneyline (+5.75 Units / 3.62% ROI)
  • 35-41 against the Over for game total points (-10.1 Units / -12.08% ROI)
  • 41-35 against the Under for game total points (+2.5 Units / 2.99% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 49 games (-25.15 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 79 games (-24.60 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 53 games (-20.50 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 62 games (-17.20 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 28 of their last 69 games (-17.00 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 38 of their last 89 games (-20.55 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 73 games (-20.35 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 40 of their last 88 games (-14.85 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 58 games (-14.25 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 33 games (-13.20 Units / -36% ROI)

Jump to:

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Warriors were 2-21 (.087) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .263

The Warriors were 13-12 (.520) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Warriors are 7-3 (.700) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .535

The Warriors were 7-11 (.389) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Mavericks are 28-15 (.651) when they win the turnover margin this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Mavericks are 31-10 (.756) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .647

The Mavericks are 37-25 (.597) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .487

The Mavericks are 30-11 (.732) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. WarriorsFriday‘s Game, Apr. 5

  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors had 20.2 free throw attempts per game last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 3.1 (211 assists/ 69 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (1,002 turnovers/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Mavericks averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,510 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 36.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,756 rebounds/75 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,999 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (649 blocks/157 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Warriors have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (326 blocks/75 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (666 blocks/157 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 6.6 steals per game (1,030 steals/157 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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