- Get betting expert betting predictions and analysis for Warriors vs. Rockets.
- Golden State is -165 to win this Round 1 matchup.
- The Rockets are 1.5-point favorites for Sunday’s Game 1.
It will be a battle of experience when the No. 2 Houston Rockets (52-30) face the No. 7 Golden State Warriors (48-34) in the first round. Game 1 is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on Sunday at Toyota Center on ESPN.
The Rockets were the better team in the regular season, earning their first playoff berth since 2020. The Warriors, meanwhile, have a prestigious postseason reputation after needing to win a play-in game to get this matchup.
Oddsmakers are siding with the playoff experience, listing the Warriors as series favorites. It marks the second time a No. 7 seed has been favored to defeat a No. 2 seed in the first round.
Here’s a look at the latest NBA betting lines for the Warriors vs. Rockets and my prediction ahead of Sunday’s Game 1:
Warriors vs. Rockets Odds: Game 1
- Warriors spread: +1.5
- Rockets spread: -1.5
- Total: 213.5
Warriors vs. Rockets Round 1 Odds
According to the latest NBA odds, the Warriors are -165 favorites for an implied probability of 62.26% to win Round 1.
This marks the second time a No. 7 seed has been favored over a No. 2 seed. In the one previous instance, the No. 2 Phoenix Suns earned a 4-2 series win over the No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers, who closed as -175 favorites.
However, it’s worth noting the Lakers were up 2-1 before Anthony Davis went down with an injury.
Warriors series price: -165
Rockets series price: +140
Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction: Game 1 & Series Best Bet
Based on the updated NBA betting market, my favorite prediction for this Warriors vs. Rockets matchup is for Houston to win Game 1 and the series (+280). I’ll split my exposure between that market and Houston’s series outright odds (+160) in case the opener doesn’t go as planned.
That said, the Rockets must hold serve at home, particularly in Game 1 when they have the rest advantage and are short favorites. But I actually like their chances of doing just that.
Houston holds an athletic advantage over an older Golden State team. This is particularly true in the absence of Jonathan Kuminga, who has been a DNP in two consecutive games for the Warriors, indicating that Steve Kerr lacks trust in him.
The Warriors may not have much left in the tank after pushing as hard as they did in the spring, and there were signs of that toward the end of the regular season. That matters because the end of this series features fewer breaks, with just one day separating the final three games as the two teams travel between Houston and San Francisco.
Houston also has the rebounding edge, ranking first in the league with an average of 58.3 rebounds per game. That led to an average of 5.5 more shots per game for the Rockets.
Amen Thompson is arguably the best on-ball defender in the league. He will draw the matchup on Stephen Curry, holding him to three points on 1-of-10 shooting in the Rockets’ 10-point win over the Warriors on April 6.
Perhaps I’m wrong and the Warriors’ experience will ultimately prevail. I have difficulty getting to this price, though, as the Rockets were the better team all year.
Series prediction: Rockets win Game 1 and series (+280) & Houston series ML (+160)
Warriors vs. Rockets Series Schedule
| Game | Date | Time (ET) | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Sunday, April 20 | 9:30 p.m. | TNT |
| Game 2 | Wednesday, April 23 | 9:30 p.m. | TNT |
| Game 3 | Saturday, April 26 | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| Game 4 | Monday, April 28 | 10 p.m. | TNT |
| Game 5 | Wednesday, April 30 | TBA | TBA |
| Game 6 | Friday, May 2 | TBA | TBA |
| Game 7 | Sunday, May 4 | TBA | TBA |
Warriors Betting Insights & Trends
Rockets Betting Insights & Trends
When Was the Last Time the Warriors Won a Playoff Series?
The Warriors last won a playoff series in 2023, defeating the Sacramento Kings in seven games in the first round. The Warriors won a championship in 2022.
When Was the Last Time the Rockets Won a Playoff Series?
The Rockets haven’t won a playoff series since 2020, when they earned a 4-3 victory over Oklahoma City in the first round. They haven’t made the postseason since then.
Related Articles
NBA Odds at the Online Sportsbook
It’s never been easier and more fun to bet on NBA odds at the online sportsbook.
From daily spreads and moneylines to futures and parlays, there are a variety of opportunities for everyone regardless of fandom, sports betting experience, and NBA knowledge.
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.
