Alabama vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 28

North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis directs his team against Boston College during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2023, in Chapel Hill, N.C.
(AP Photo/Chris Seward)
  • March Madness prediction & betting odds
  • North Carolina (21-15) is a -4.5 point favorite vs Alabama (19-15)
  • Total (Over/Under): 173.5 points
  • Alabama / North Carolina TV channel: CBS

The Alabama Crimson Tide (19-15) visit Crypto.com Arena to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (21-15) on Mar. 28. Tip off is scheduled for 9:39pm EDT in Los Angeles, CA.

North Carolina is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (+100).

The Alabama vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 173.5 total points.

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Alabama vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Alabama+4.5 -120O 173.5 -110+155
North Carolina -4.5 +100U 173.5 -110-190

Alabama vs North Carolina Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this college basketball game with 63.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Alabama vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Alabama will cover the spread with 58.2% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 34 games (+15.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.10 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Alabama have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the Spread in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games (+5.95 Units / 4% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.00 Units / 9% ROI)

Alabama Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Alabama has a 19-15 record against the spread this college basketball season (+2.55 Units / 6.79% ROI).

  • 19-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.51% ROI
  • 25-9 when betting the Over for +15.1 Units / 40.32% ROI
  • 9-25 when betting the Under for -18.45 Units / -49.4% ROI

North Carolina Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

North Carolina has a 21-15 record against the spread this college basketball season (+4.45 Units / 11.21% ROI).

  • 24-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 3.61% ROI
  • 18-18 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -4.79% ROI
  • 18-18 when betting the Under for -1.8 Units / -4.56% ROI

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends:

Alabama has made 490 three-pointers at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — most among SEC Teams

Alabama has made 11.1 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 7.7

Alabama has attempted 1,329 threes at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — most among SEC Teams

Alabama has averaged 85.6 points per game (5,733 points/67 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 72.5

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has a 36% free throw rate (658 free throw attempts/1,850 field goal attempts) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 28%

North Carolina has 961 defensive rebounds this season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has 374 offensive rebounds on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has 23.0 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 20th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 19.2

Alabama Defensive Stats & Trends:

Alabama has averaged 29.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,990 rebounds/67 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.3

Alabama has averaged 29.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,990 rebounds/67 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.5

Alabama has allowed opponents to shoot 30% from three (296/985) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among Power Conference defenses; League Avg: 34%

Alabama has allowed opponents to shoot 29% from three (415/1,411) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has allowed opponents to shoot 40% (396/996) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 45%

North Carolina has averaged 29.1 defensive rebounds per game (961 rebounds/33 games) this season — tied for 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.5

North Carolina has averaged 28.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,907 rebounds/66 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.5

North Carolina has allowed opponents to shoot 41% (833/2,032) this season — tied for 21st best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%


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