Missouri Valley Basketball Tournament: Schedule, Odds, Predictions

The Missouri Valley men’s basketball tournament is one of the biggest attractions of the early conference tournament lineup. 

Arch Madness has delivered upsets, buzzer-beaters, and mayhem throughout the years – all with an enhanced spotlight, since bigger NCAA conference basketball tournaments don’t begin for another few days.

Naturally, BetMGM has college basketball odds and futures for every upcoming tournament, including this one. 

Missouri Valley Tournament Schedule

The Missouri Valley conference tournament runs March 7-10 at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis. 

• Game 1: No. 8 Murray State vs. No. 9 Missouri State (March 7)
• Game 2: No. 5 Belmont vs. No. 12 Valparaiso (March 7)
• Game 3: No. 7 Illinois State vs. No. 10 Evansville (March 7)
• Game 4: No. 6 Southern Illinois vs. No. 11 Illinois-Chicago (March 7)
• Game 5: No. 1 Indiana State vs. Game 1 Winner (March 8)
• Game 6: No. 4 Northern Iowa vs. Game 2 Winner (March 8)
• Game 7: No. 2 Drake vs. Game 3 Winner (March 8)
• Game 8: No. 3 Bradley vs. Game 4 Winner (March 8)
• Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. Game Game 6 Winner (March 9)
• Game 10: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner (March 9)
• Game 11: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner (March 10)

Missouri Valley Tournament Odds

Missouri Valley Tournament Prediction

Drake (+200) will win the Missouri Valley Tournament and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Here are a couple of other notes to keep in mind:

Arch Madness

There’s a reason Missouri Valley fans have nicknamed their conference tournament with a direct riff on March Madness. The MVC is a much deeper and more competitive league than many other mid-major leagues, and that makes for a more competitive (and more upset-prone) tournament in St. Louis.

As a result, the No. 1 seed has won the tournament only three times in the last 10 years. And for what it’s worth, those three top seeds that won (’14 Wichita State, ’18 Loyola Chicago, ’21 Loyola Chicago) were all teams that have since evolved past the Valley and moved on to bigger conferences. 

What I’m saying here is that this is one of those conferences where it’s OK to give into that March temptation to get a little wild with the upset projections. There’s a perfectly defensible rationale for buying a Bradley +325 ticket. 

Northern Iowa might be +1000, but the Panthers closed the season with a 5-1 run that included wins over both Drake and Bradley. Belmont (+1600) is 7-1 since Feb. 7 and split its season series with Drake. No. 6 seed Southern Illinois (+2500) is the last team to have beaten top seed Indiana State. 

So, yeah, you can think about getting aggressive here with some of these futures. At worst, you might have some powerful hedge potential in the later rounds. 

Two Bids For the Valley?

Indiana State has cracked the KenPom top 50 and is the presumed autobid winner as the MVC No. 1 seed. 

If that chalk holds up, No. 2 seed Drake (25-6) still has a real shot to snag an at-large bid if the chips fall their way. The Bulldogs are starting to crack First Four Out/Next Four Out lists, which means a run to the MVC championship game (alongside some fortuitous upsets in other conferences) could really put them in at-large contention. 

Is that likely? Of course not. But the MVC earned an at-large bid as recently as 2021, when Drake edged former conference foe Wichita State in a First Four game before moving on to face USC in the round of 64. So an at-large berth is absolutely possible, if Drake has a good showing this week. A neutral-site win over Nevada is the biggest feather in its nonconference cap.

As for the reverse scenario – a Drake championship and an Indiana State runner-up – the Sycamores might end up on the wrong side of the bubble in that scenario. They’re 1-3 in Quad 1 games and don’t have a marquee nonconference win to point at like Drake does. Indiana State needs the autobid.

Conference Tournament Previews & Predictions