- Sun Belt conference tournament will run from March 5-11 in Pensacola.
- James Madison (+110) is favored to win the Sun Belt conference tournament.
- Appalachian State, the No. 1 seed, is +200.
The Sun Belt is known more as a football conference, with former FCS powers like Appalachian State and James Madison building a compelling regional product. It hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2016 and hasn’t placed multiple teams in the bracket since 2013.
All that could change this year, as the Sun Belt provides some real intrigue at the top of the conference with a pair of top 80 teams.
If chalk holds, the Sun Belt could provide one of the best finales in the entire landscape of 2024 NCAA conference tournaments.
Sun Belt Tournament Schedule
The Sun Belt conference tournament runs from March 5-11 at the Pensacola Bay Center in Florida.
- Game 1: No. 12 Louisiana-Monroe vs. No. 13 Coastal Carolina (March 5)
- Game 2: No. 11 Texas State vs. No. 14 Old Dominion (March 5)
- Game 3: No. 8 South Alabama vs. No. 9 Georgia Southern (March 7)
- Game 4: No. 5 Louisiana vs. Game 1 Winner (March 7)
- Game 5: No. 6 Southern Miss vs. Game 2 Winner (March 7)
- Game 6: No. 7 Georgia State vs. No. 10 Marshall (March 7)
- Game 7: No. 1 App State vs. Game 3 Winner (March 9)
- Game 8: No. 4 Arkansas State vs. Game 4 Winner (March 9)
- Game 9: No. 3 Troy vs. Game 5 Winner (March 9)
- Game 10: No. 2 JMU vs. Game 6 Winner (March 9)
- Game 11: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner (March 10)
- Game 12: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner (March 10)
- Game 13: Game 11 Winner vs. Game 12 Winner (March 11)
Sun Belt Tournament Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| James Madison | +110 |
| App State | +200 |
| Troy | +600 |
| Arkansas State | +700 |
| Louisiana | +1400 |
| South Alabama | +5000 |
| Southern Miss | +5000 |
| Georgia State | +6600 |
| Texas State | +10000 |
| Marshall | +10000 |
| Georgia Southern | +20000 |
| UL Monroe | +20000 |
| Old Dominion | +25000 |
| Coastal Carolina | +25000 |
Sun Belt Tournament Prediction
Appalachian State (+200) will win the Sun Belt men’s basketball tournament and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Here are a couple other things to watch for during this tournament:
Should We Expect Chalk, or Does Anyone Else Have a Shot at This Thing?
Look, it’s a single-elimination basketball tournament in March, so anything can happen.
That said, it would be pretty surprising if the bid went to anyone other than No. 1 App State or No. 2 JMU. There’s a clear line of demarcation between the Sun Belt’s top two teams and the rest of the conference, all of whom check in between 125 and 300 in the KenPom ratings.
The Mountaineers and Dukes rank 73 and 61, respectively. Neither team has lost a game since before the Super Bowl.
No. 3 Troy likely presents the most interesting case for anyone who wants to throw a dart. The Trojans beat App State 66-62 on Jan. 6 and didn’t draw JMU in its cross-divisional matchups.
Doomed Dukes
I can hear the chorus now. If it is indeed a chalky championship game in Pensacola, fans of No. 2 seed JMU will turn to that old, tried-and-true chestnut.
“It is difficult to beat a good team three times in one season!”
I can’t speak with any personal expertise on the difficulty of beating a tournament favorite in the championship round. My competitive basketball career ended somewhere around the mid-aughts, when a teenaged Frank Mason swatted my shot into the bleachers during a pick-up game in suburban Richmond. I was pretty much done after that.
However, I can tell you a little bit about stats and trends. And in men’s college basketball, the team that won the first two games also wins the third game about two-thirds of the time.
Yeah … not a great stat for the throngs of JMU fans that will imminently enter my mentions after I hit publish on this.
If No. 1 App State does indeed complete the three-game sweep – and I wholly, definitely believe they will – that means JMU will be sweating on Selection Sunday. A championship game appearance for the Dukes would shake out to a 30-win season, and a Division I men’s team has never been left out after breaking that threshold.
Final: #JMU MBB wins at Coastal Carolina, 86-76, and finishes the regular season with a 28-3 record.
Currently, 2018 St. Mary’s holds the record for most wins (28) without an NCAA Tournament appearance.
We are officially in interesting historical territory.
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) March 2, 2024
On the other hand, JMU has exactly one Quad 1 win on the entire season, which is going to make it hard to compete against all the other bubble teams out there.
In the event of a conference tournament loss, JMU would need the selection committee to reimagine a famous (and controversial) decision: the infamous VCU at-large berth from 2011.
While it’s not a perfect comparison, there are some clear parallels. VCU (23-11 ahead of the NCAA Tournament) was a very skilled mid-major that didn’t have a great paper case and relied mostly on eye test after the Rams lost to ODU in the CAA championship. The committee put them in at the expense of other “more deserving” resumes that belonged to teams in power conferences.
The biggest difference between then and now is the rise of the Mountain West, which is another serious, multi-bid league that makes the bubble even more crowded.
Sure, JMU is a clearly good team that could finish the pre-tournament season with 30 wins and boasts a giant, passionate fan base. But as the committee knows, the sixth-place team in the Big East or Mountain West is probably more deserving. Just look at the teams they lost to!
As for App State, I don’t see any way they could lose before the Sun Belt championship. They’re the No. 1 seed for a reason. How embarrassing would that be, right?
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2023-24 Sun Belt Standings
Team Conf. Wins Conf. Losses Win Pct. Total Wins Total Losses Win Pct. App St. 16 2 .889 26 5 .839 James Madison 15 3 .833 28 3 .903 Troy 13 5 .722 20 11 .645 Arkansas St. 11 7 .611 16 15 .516 Louisiana 10 8 .556 18 13 .581 So. Miss 9 9 .500 16 15 .516 South Alabama 8 10 .444 16 15 .516 Georgia St. 8 10 .444 14 16 .467 Ga. Southern 8 10 .444 8 23 .258 Texas St. 7 11 .389 14 17 .452 Marshall 7 11 .389 12 19 .387 UL-Monroe 6 12 .333 11 18 .379 C. Carolina 5 13 .278 8 21 .276 Old Dominion 3 15 .167 7 24 .226 -
Sun Belt Tournament Champions
Year Champion Runner-Up Score 1977 UNC Charlotte New Orleans 71–70 1978 New Orleans South Alabama 22–20 1979 Jacksonville South Florida 68–54 1980 VCU UAB 105–88 1981 VCU UAB 62–61 (OT) 1982 UAB VCU 94–83 1983 UAB South Florida 64–47 1984 UAB Old Dominion 62–60 1985 VCU Old Dominion 87–82 1986 Jacksonville UAB 70–69 1987 UAB Western Kentucky 72–60 1988 UNC Charlotte VCU 81–79 1989 South Alabama Jacksonville 105–59 1990 South Florida UNC Charlotte 81–74 1991 South Alabama Old Dominion 86–81 1992 Southwestern Louisiana Louisiana Tech 75–71 1993 Western Kentucky New Orleans 72–63 1994 Southwestern Louisiana Western Kentucky 78–72 1995 Western Kentucky Arkansas–Little Rock 82–79 1996 New Orleans Arkansas–Little Rock 57–56 1997 South Alabama Louisiana Tech 44–43 1998 South Alabama Southwestern Louisiana 62–59 1999 Arkansas State Western Kentucky 65–48 2000 Louisiana–Lafayette South Alabama 51–50 2001 Western Kentucky South Alabama 64–54 2002 Western Kentucky Louisiana–Lafayette 76–70 2003 Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 64–52 2004 Louisiana–Lafayette Vacated New Orleans 67–58 2005 Louisiana–Lafayette Vacated Denver 88–69 2006 South Alabama Western Kentucky 95–70 2007 North Texas Arkansas State 83–75 2008 Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 67–57 2009 Western Kentucky South Alabama 64–55 2010 North Texas Troy 66–63 2011 Arkansas–Little Rock North Texas 64–63 2012 Western Kentucky North Texas 74–70 2013 Western Kentucky FIU 65–63 2014 Louisiana–Lafayette Georgia State 82–81 (OT) 2015 Georgia State Georgia Southern 38–36 2016 Little Rock Louisiana–Monroe 70–50 2017 Troy Texas State 59–53 2018 Georgia State Texas–Arlington 74–61 2019 Georgia State Texas–Arlington 73–64 2021 Appalachian State Georgia State 80–73 2022 Georgia State Louisiana 80–71 2023 Louisiana South Alabama 71–66 -
Most Sun Belt Tournament Championships
Team Championships Years Western Kentucky 9 1993, 1995, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013 South Alabama 5 1989, 1991, 1997, 1998, 2006 Louisiana 5 1992, 1994, 2000, 2014, 2023 UAB 4 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987 Georgia State 4 2015, 2018, 2019, 2022 VCU 3 1980, 1981, 1985 Charlotte 2 1977, 1988 Jacksonville 2 1979, 1986 New Orleans 2 1978, 1996 North Texas 2 2007, 2010 Little Rock 2 2011, 2016 Appalachian State 1 2021 Arkansas State 1 1999 South Florida 1 1990 Troy 1 2017
Conference Tournament Previews & Predictions
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