NC State vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 31

Duke head coach Jon Scheyer watches from the sideline against North Carolina State during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Raleigh, N.C., Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023.
(AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)
  • Duke (21-13) is a -6.5 point favorite vs North Carolina State (19-19)
  • Total (Over/Under): 143.5 points
  • North Carolina State / Duke TV channel: CBS

The North Carolina State Wolfpack (19-19) visit American Airlines Center to take on the Duke Blue Devils (21-13) on Mar. 31. Tip off is scheduled for 5:05pm EDT in Dallas, TX.

Duke is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The North Carolina State vs. Duke Over/Under is 143.5 total points.

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North Carolina State vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina State+6.5 -110O 143.5 -115+230
Duke -6.5 -110U 143.5 -105-300

North Carolina State vs Duke Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Duke will win this March Madness game with 73.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

North Carolina State vs Duke Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts NC State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence for this game.


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  • NC State has hit the Moneyline in their last 8 games (+17.40 Units / 126% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • NC State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+6.85 Units / 83% ROI)
  • NC State have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 22 of their last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the Spread in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+4.15 Units / 4% ROI)

North Carolina State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

North Carolina State has a 19-19 record against the spread this college basketball season (-2 Units / -4.65% ROI).

  • 21-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.65 Units / 17.18% ROI
  • 23-15 when betting the Over for +6.5 Units / 15.13% ROI
  • 15-23 when betting the Under for -10.25 Units / -23.92% ROI

Duke Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Duke has a 21-13 record against the spread this college basketball season (+6.7 Units / 17.4% ROI).

  • 22-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -3.87% ROI
  • 14-21 when betting the Over for -9.05 Units / -23.54% ROI
  • 21-14 when betting the Under for +5.6 Units / 14.53% ROI

North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina State has averaged 9.4 turnovers per game (661 turnovers/70 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.6

North Carolina State has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (894 assists/ 661 TOs) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 20th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

North Carolina State has averaged 9.4 turnovers per game (339 turnovers/36 games) this season — tied for 14th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 11.6

North Carolina State has averaged 9.4 turnovers per game (339 turnovers/36 games) this season — 5th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.3

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends:

Duke is shooting 42% from three (147/351) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 35%

Duke has averaged 8.1 assists per game (268 assists/33 games) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.6

Duke has averaged 1.35 points per shot (2,640 points/1,952 shots) this season — tied for 16th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Duke has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (516 assists/ 319 TOs) this season — tied for 12th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2

North Carolina State Defensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina State has averaged 8.4 steals per game (336 steals/40 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.4

North Carolina State has 534 steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina State has 268 steals this season — 3rd most among ACC Teams

North Carolina State has 268 steals this season — tied for 8th most among Power Conference teams

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has averaged 26.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,820 rebounds/69 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 38th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.3

Duke has 220 steals this season — 5th most among ACC Teams

Duke has allowed an average of 1.13 points per shot (4,479 points/3,964 shots) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 8th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.23

Duke has allowed an average of 1.16 points per shot (2,189 points/1,885 shots) this season — tied for 30th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.23


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