Notre Dame vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 31

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Virginia head coach Tony Bennett reacts to a call during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 31, 2024, 11:09 AM
  • Virginia (11-8) is a -12.5 point favorite vs Notre Dame (10-10)
  • Total (Over/Under): 115.5 points
  • Notre Dame / Virginia TV channel: ESPN2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-10) visit John Paul Jones Arena to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (11-8) on Jan. 31. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Charlottesville, VA.

Virginia is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-115).

The Notre Dame vs. Virginia Over/Under is 115.5 total points.

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Notre Dame vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Notre Dame+12.5 -105O 115.5 -105+625
Virginia -12.5 -115U 115.5 -115-1000

Notre Dame vs Virginia Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Virginia will win this college basketball game with 89.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Notre Dame vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 51.6% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Notre Dame has hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+12.75 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 30 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Notre Dame has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games at home (+11.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 21 games at home (+8.25 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)

Notre Dame Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Notre Dame has a 10-10 record against the spread this college basketball season (-0.9 Units / -4.11% ROI).

  • 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -15.53% ROI
  • 5-15 when betting the Over for -11.5 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • 15-5 when betting the Under for +9.5 Units / 43.18% ROI

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has a 12-7 record against the spread this college basketball season (+4.3 Units / 19.55% ROI).

  • 12-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 5.34% ROI
  • 7-13 when betting the Over for -7.5 Units / -33.78% ROI
  • 13-7 when betting the Under for +5.35 Units / 24.49% ROI

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends:

Notre Dame is shooting 25% from three (56/226) in the second half this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 36%

Notre Dame has averaged 62.4 points per game (1,249 points/20 games) this season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 76.5

Notre Dame has averaged 30.2 points per game (605 points/20 games) in the second half this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 39.6

Notre Dame has averaged 4.0 assists per game (79 assists/20 games) in the second half this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.8

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (290 assists/ 183 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (833 assists/ 455 TOs) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has averaged 8.6 turnovers per game (455 turnovers/53 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.7

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (290 assists/ 183 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends:

Notre Dame has averaged 27.1 defensive rebounds per game (542 rebounds/20 games) this season — tied for 36th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.8

Notre Dame has averaged 5.8 steals per game (115 steals/20 games) this season — 5th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.7

Notre Dame has averaged 5.1 steals per game (266 steals/52 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.3

Notre Dame has averaged 5.2 steals per game (177 steals/34 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.5

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has allowed 57.6 points per game (1,153 points/20 games) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 70.1

Virginia has allowed 24.4 points per game (489 points/20 games) in the first half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 32.5

Virginia has allowed 59.4 points per game (3,149 points/53 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 70.3

Virginia has allowed 26.4 points per game (1,399 points/53 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.