Sweet 16 Predictions: Odds & Best Bets For 2025 NCAA Tournament

Now that the 2025 NCAA Tournament has advanced to the Sweet 16, the games get far more serious. Gone are the talk of Cinderellas and upsets, as only big brands from power conferences remain.ย 

Only four teams will remain in the hunt for the 2025 menโ€™s basketball national championship after this week.ย 

For those who have already bet the March Madness futures and are looking for a few single-game betting options, here are a few betting predictions I like for this weekโ€™s Sweet 16 schedule.ย 

Sweet 16 Odds

Date (Region)Favorite (Spread)Underdog (Spread)Total
Thursday, March 27 (East)Alabama (-5.5)BYU (+5.5)175.5
Thursday, March 27 (West)Florida (-6.5)Maryland (+6.5)156.5
Thursday, March 27 (East)Duke (-9.5)Arizona (+9.5)153.5
Thursday, March 27 (West)Texas Tech (-5.5)Arkansas (+5.5)148.5
Friday, March 28 (South)Michigan State (-3.5)Ole Miss (+3.5)143.5
Friday, March 28 (Midwest)Tennessee (-4.5)Kentucky (+4.5)144.5
Friday, March 28 (South)Auburn (-8.5)Michigan (+8.5)153.5
Friday, March 28 (Midwest)Houston (-7.5)Purdue (+7.5)132.5

Alabama vs. BYU Prediction

Iโ€™m not surprised to see this total floating up, even early in the week. Alabama is all about modern, effective offense, including high-volume emphasis on the three. They play at the fastest rate in Division I basketball. Oh, and BYU defends the arc quite poorly.

The Cougars arenโ€™t Alabama, but they do have an effective field goal percentage north of 57%, which is a top 10 mark in Division I.

The over is 6-1 in games where BYU is the underdog.

Alabama vs. BYU Pick: Over 175.5

Michigan State vs. Ole Miss Prediction

This might be an overly simplistic way to look at the tournament, but Iโ€™m just not betting against Tom Izzo in this game.ย 

The sportsbook needed to hang a price that would deter me from betting against Michigan State here, and 3.5 ainโ€™t it.

Michigan State vs Ole Miss Pick: Michigan State -3.5

Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction

Itโ€™s not just that the Tennessee menโ€™s team โ€“ and head coach Rick Barnes in particular โ€“ are famous NCAA Tournament underachievers.

This bet is specifically about Kentucky, which swept Tennessee in the regular season and is looking for its third win against the Vols this season.ย 

The conventional wisdom is that itโ€™s hard to beat a good team three times in one season. But this is more of a folksy coaching observation made for deployment in press conferences, not sportsbooks. Historically, in this situation, college basketball teams that won the first two games go on to win the third game more than 60% of the time.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky Pick: Kentucky +4.5; Kentucky +150

No. 1 Seed Parlay

The Maryland-Florida game scares me a little bit, but I do feel pretty confident about the other three No. 1 seeds advancing at least one more round.ย 

At BetMGM, a three-leg parlay with No. 1 Houston, No. 1 Duke, and No. 1 Auburn is currently available at -110.

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.