- The Bears are a 1.5-point favorite against the Jaguars.
- The Jaguars have lost seven straight games against NFC North opponents.
- I predict Bears vs. Jaguars will stay under the pregame total.
The second London game of the season sees the Chicago Bears take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Chicago has captured two straight wins to rise above .500. Last week, they fell behind 7-0 against the Panthers but ultimately earned a 36-10 home win.
As for the Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence guided the hosts to its first win of the season, a 37-34 victory against the Indianapolis Colts.
Bet on Bears vs. Jaguars and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 6 Odds: Bears vs. Jaguars
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | +1.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | +105 |
| Bears | -1.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | -125 |
Bears vs. Jaguars Prediction
Based on Caleb Williams’ inability to complete deep passes and his struggles against man coverage, my Bears vs. Jaguars prediction is the Total Under 44.5 Points (-110).
Both teams eclipsed 35 points in Week 5. However, this is a great sell-high spot for varying reasons on Chicago and Jacksonville.
Jacksonville goes from facing a Colts team that is 20th in EPA per play to a Bears team that is fourth overall.
In terms of overall EPA per play, the Bears are Jacksonville’s hardest opponent. At Buffalo, which ranks eighth defensively, they managed 10 points.
The crux of this bet, though, is Jacksonville limiting the Bears offense.
At first glance, Jacksonville’s metrics aren’t pretty. Their defense is 31st in EPA per play, including 32nd against the pass.
But improvement has come recently. In the last two games, the Jaguars are 21st in dropback success rate and 29th in dropback EPA per play, per rbsdm.com.
What those metrics tell me is that opponents are consistently burning Jacksonville deep. The good news? Williams isn’t very good at throwing deep balls.
Of 23 quarterbacks with at least 75 passing attempts this season, Williams is dead last in PFF’s grades on passes 20 or more yards downfield.
Additionally, Williams has benefitted from facing three zone-heavy coverage schemes the last three weeks. In those games, he racked up 25.3 points per game.
But in the first two games of the year against man-heavy schemes, the Bears offense mustered only one offensive touchdown and 10.5 points per game.
As a result, I’ll sell Chicago’s offense on a neutral field and take the under on Sunday.
Bears vs. Jaguars: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (ML) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 29% | 48% | 47% | 34% |
| Bears | 71% | 52% | 53% | 57% |
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