Bears vs. Titans Prediction, Odds, Pick: NFL Week 1

The Caleb Williams era begins in Chicago with a Week 1 home matchup against the Tennessee Titans. 

Hopes are high for the Bears, who drafted Williams and Rome Odunze inside the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft. After finishing last in the division, Chicago’s playoff chances are rated as a coin flip. 

As for Tennessee, they finished last in the AFC South last year. They were the only team in the division under .500 and fired Mike Vrabel in the offseason. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 game. 

Bears vs. Titans Odds, Week 1

• Chicago Bears Moneyline: -210
• Tennessee Titans Moneyline: +170
• Game Spread: Bears -4.5
• Game Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Bears vs. Titans Prediction, Week 1

Without evidence to support the Bears hype, I predict the Titans cover the spread (+4.5, -110) in Week 1. 

Interestingly, tickets are on the Titans to cover. Normally, a public dog would give me pause, but this instance actually inspires me to bet the visitors. 

Dating back to 2004, road teams priced between +2.5 and +6.5 in the first three weeks are 67% ATS, assuming two factors:

• The closing total is lower than 50
• The visiting team won between one and six games last year

Here’s the kicker: when those teams are playing a home team that missed the playoffs last year, they improve to 68.4% ATS, including 69% when taking more than half of the tickets. 

Let’s also not forget the quality additions Tennessee has made this offseason. 

Corner L’Jarius Sneed is immediately the best player on Tennessee’s defense. His arrival should bolster a Titans pass defense which ranked 30th in pass EPA per play last year. 

Kenneth Murray and Ernest Jones help fill gaps at linebacker, while Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley give receiving threats for Will Levis. 

As a result, I’ll take the Titans to cover the spread in Chicago.