- The Bills are a 14-point home favorite against the Patriots.
- The Bills have won 10 straight home games against AFC East opponents.
- My Bills vs. Patriots prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
Week 16’s biggest spread is featured in Buffalo as the Patriots travel to face the Bills in a division clash.
New England suffered a 30-16 road loss in Arizona in Week 15, extending their losing streak to four games. This season, the Patriots are 1-3 ATS in division play.
Buffalo throttled the Lions 48-42 in Week 15, the second straight week Buffalo notched at least 40 points. Buffalo has already clinched the division but is still alive for the top seed in the AFC.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Bills vs. Patriots
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on the Patriots’ horrific defensive record and their improving offensive metrics, my Bills vs. Patriots prediction is the Total Over 47 Points (-110).
I struggle to see a world in which the Patriots keep the Bills under 30 points in this spot. After all, Buffalo has yet to record fewer than 30 points at home this season.
On Sunday, the Bills get a Patriots defense that, since Week 11, ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play and 29th in defensive success rate,
For the entire season, New England ranks 30th in defensive DVOA, having faced the second-easiest set of opposing offenses.
But New England’s offense has sneakily improved since installing Drake Maye as the starting quarterback.
In the first five weeks of the season, the Patriots ranked 28th in offensive EPA per play and 24th in offensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.
But since Week 6, Jerod Mayo’s side has improved to 21st in EPA per play and 16th in success rate. Since Week 9, the Patriots rank 20th and 12th in those respective metrics.
Even if it comes in garbage time, my belief is that New England can record points against Buffalo’s defense on the heels of consecutive road games.
That said, it’s my belief there are multiple avenues to this over hitting. In reality, there’s a chance Buffalo posts another 40-burger on New England.
Given both teams sit 9-5 to the pregame over/under this season, I’ll take the over on what feels like a low number in Buffalo.
Betting Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Bills vs. Patriots public betting data and insights.
