- The Bills are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Ravens.
- The Ravens are 13-0 SU this season when scoring more than 25 points.
- My Bills vs. Ravens prediction focuses on the Baltimore team total.
It’s a clash between two MVP candidates as the Bills host the Ravens in the NFL divisional round.
Buffalo cruised past the Broncos on Sunday, earning a 31-7 win. Now, they’ll play a second straight home game and try to reach the AFC Championship for the first time since 2020.
Baltimore’s win and cover over the Steelers came in a 28-14 home win. That marks the 13th straight win of the season for Baltimore after scoring at least 25 points.
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NFL Divisional Round Odds: Bills vs. Ravens
Bills vs. Ravens Prediction
Based on the expected regression for Buffalo’s defense and Baltimore’s previous success against the Bills, my Bills vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens Over 26.5 Points.
The time has come to sell high on Buffalo’s defense.
During the regular season, Buffalo posted strong defensive metrics, ranking 11th in defensive DVOA and 12th in expected points added per play.
But that came against the 23rd-easiest set of opposing offenses. In fact, the Bills played only two games against teams fifth or better in offensive DVOA.
In each of those games, the Bills surrendered no fewer than 35 points. Included in that sample is a trip to Baltimore, where Buffalo allowed 35 to the Ravens.
Meanwhile, there’s no questioning the quality of Baltimore’s offense.
The Ravens lead the NFL in offensive DVOA, having faced the fifth-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Two slight concerns exist with Baltimore. First, the status of Zay Flowers remains a question mark. Second, they’ve played only one road game against a top-10 defense outdoors.
That effort resulted in a 16-point struggle against the Steelers on extended rest, so it’s feasible that Baltimore’s offense takes a massive step back.
However, Baltimore has cleared this number in all but five games this season.
Despite their easy strength of schedule, Buffalo has allowed five teams to clear this number.
That renders this a great sell-high spot on Buffalo, which goes from facing a team 16th in offensive DVOA to the league leaders.
Betting Bills vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting
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