- The Chiefs are -8.5 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Denver Broncos (5-4-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (8-0-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Broncos | +8.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +310 |
| Chiefs | -8.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -400 |
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Reynolds has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bo Nix has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+4.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.95 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Samaje Perine has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 54.5 -110 | 54.5 -120 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 19.5 -115 | 19.5 -115 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 52.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 38.5 -120 | 38.5 -110 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+8.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.27 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 6-3 (+2.75 Units / 27.78% ROI).
- Broncos are 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 27.19% ROI
- Broncos are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Broncos are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 4-3 (+0.75 Units / 8.72% ROI).
- Chiefs are 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.2 Units / 40% ROI
- Chiefs are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos were 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Broncos were 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
The Broncos were 1-5 (.167) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.
The Broncos are winless (0-4) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .180.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chiefs are 10-4 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .269.
The Chiefs are 6-0 (1.000) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-best in NFL. The Broncos have turned the ball over 14 times this season — 4th-most in NFL.
The Chiefs are undefeated (6-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .386.
The Chiefs are undefeated (8-0) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on 54.7% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on 54.7% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on 54.7% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Broncos have averaged just 0.23 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just 0.29 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have averaged just 0.23 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just 0.29 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have averaged just -0.29 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just -0.28 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos have run successful plays on 29% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos have run successful plays on 0% of plays against a light rush this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Broncos have averaged -0.24 epa per play on motion plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have averaged -0.81 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have converted first downs on 58 of 109 plays (53%) on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 70% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense have allowed 0.13 epa per play open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.
The Broncos defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 4th quarter in Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Broncos defense allowed 14.2 yards per dropback (269 yards/19 attempts) in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.5.
The Broncos defense has blitzed 152 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of 123.3 on contested throws (25 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 75.3.
67% of the plays run against the Chiefs have been in their own territory in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 3 of 109 attempts (3%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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