Browns vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:52 AM

The Commanders are -3.5 point favorites vs the Browns
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Cleveland Browns (1-3-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (3-1-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Landover, MD.

The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Browns vs. Commanders Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Browns	+3.5 -115	43.5 -110	+145
Commanders	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-175

Browns vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 63.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Browns vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Browns will cover the spread with 61.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 62% ROI)
David Njoku has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 57% ROI)
David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Dustin Hopkins has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.90 Units / 36% ROI)
Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.05 Units / 61% ROI)
Noah Brown has hit the Longest Reception Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.60 Units / 44% ROI)

Browns Best Bets:

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 away games (+8.90 Units / 72% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.35 Units / 39% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 59% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.75 Units / 30% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 23% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns art 1-3 (-2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI).

Browns are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -62.88% ROI
Browns are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Browns are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 42.22% ROI).

Commanders are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 102.35% ROI
Commanders are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Commanders are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Browns are 5-2 (.714) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 254.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Browns are undefeated (5-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .545.

The Browns were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders are 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders are 3-1 (.750) this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have averaged just -0.08 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed just -0.09 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Commanders have been successful on 48.8% of plays they have ran against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Browns have allowed their opponents to be successful on 66.7% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

Commanders RBs have averaged 12.8 yards after the catch this season — best in NFL. The Browns have allowed 10.1 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Browns have thrown the ball 58.0% of the time this season — T-3rd-highest in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

The Browns have run successful plays on just 40.0% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have pressured opposing QBs on 46.7% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Browns have scored 5.0 points per Red Zone drive this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 5.1 points per Red Zone drive this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns have averaged -0.08 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.38.

The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 0% on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 36% of pass attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 21% this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats

The Commanders have scored on 68% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Commanders have scored on 77% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Commanders have run 66% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Commanders have averaged 0.24 epa per play against a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Browns defense has allowed first downs on just 29% of plays on 3rd down since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts first read passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats

The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 53% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense has allowed 49 TD passes since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense have allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.

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