- The Chiefs are -8.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPN2 | ESPD
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0-0) on Nov. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buccaneers | +9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +375 |
| Chiefs | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -500 |
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Buccaneers vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | +450 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | +650 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | -185 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | +115 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White (TB) | 20.5 -115 | 20.5 -115 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 21.5 -120 | 21.5 -115 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 34.5 -115 | 34.5 -115 |
| Justin Watson (KC) | 19.5 -115 | 19.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 19.5 -120 | 19.5 -110 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+7.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+3.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 3.95% ROI
- Buccaneers are 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Buccaneers are 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 23.84% ROI).
- Chiefs are 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 43.9% ROI
- Chiefs are 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Chiefs are 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Buccaneers were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .631.
The Buccaneers were 8-4 (.667) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .557.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Chiefs are 10-1 (.909) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 251.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 6-0 (1.000) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have turned the ball over 13 times this season — T-4th-most in NFL.
The Chiefs were undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.
The Chiefs were 8-2 (.800) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.
Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been successful on 50.7% of plays they have ran against a base rush this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.6% of plays with a base rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 70.0% of plays they have ran on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 69.8% of plays on play action passes this season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 71.1% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on 68.0% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 53.3% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 56.3% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 65.0% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 59.1% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have gone three and out on 7.7% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have forced three and outs on 5.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs went three and out on 14% of their drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Chiefs averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 75% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.4 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.
The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.5 yards after contact per carry (349 carries) to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 4.5 yards per dropback (675 yards/150 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 15.9 points per game to opposing offenses (271 points / 17 games) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20.7.
The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts with a base front last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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