Buccaneers vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 9

min read
(AP Photo/John Locher)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 01, 2024, 3:30 PM
  • The Chiefs are -8.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
  • Total (Over/Under): 46 points
  • Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPN2 | ESPD

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (7-0-0) on Nov. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Chiefs vs Buccaneers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Buccaneers+9.5 -11045.5 -110+375
Chiefs -9.5 -11045.5 -110-500

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Chiefs vs Buccaneers and all NFL games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Buccaneers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Kareem Hunt (KC) +450
Travis Kelce (KC) +650

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Buccaneers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Kareem Hunt (KC) -185
Travis Kelce (KC) +115

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Buccaneers

Player Name Over Under
Rachaad White (TB) 20.5 -115 20.5 -115
Travis Kelce (KC) 58.5 -115 58.5 -115
Noah Gray (KC) 21.5 -120 21.5 -115
Xavier Worthy (KC) 34.5 -115 34.5 -115
Justin Watson (KC) 19.5 -115 19.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Buccaneers

Player Name Over Under
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 19.5 -120 19.5 -110
Baker Mayfield (TB) 15.5 -120 15.5 -110
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+7.80 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.35 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+3.05 Units / 11% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 3.95% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 4-2 (+1.8 Units / 23.84% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 43.9% ROI
  • Chiefs are 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
  • Chiefs are 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Buccaneers were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .631.

The Buccaneers were 8-4 (.667) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .557.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Chiefs are 10-1 (.909) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 251.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Chiefs are 6-0 (1.000) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have turned the ball over 13 times this season — T-4th-most in NFL.

The Chiefs were undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.

The Chiefs were 8-2 (.800) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been successful on 50.7% of plays they have ran against a base rush this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.6% of plays with a base rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have been successful on 70.0% of plays they have ran on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 69.8% of plays on play action passes this season — worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 71.1% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on 68.0% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 53.3% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 56.3% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 65.0% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 59.1% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have gone three and out on 7.7% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have forced three and outs on 5.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs went three and out on 14% of their drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Chiefs averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 75% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.4 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.5 yards after contact per carry (349 carries) to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Chiefs defense allowed just 4.5 yards per dropback (675 yards/150 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Chiefs defense allowed just 15.9 points per game to opposing offenses (271 points / 17 games) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20.7.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts with a base front last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Chiefs vs Buccaneers and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, thereโ€™s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today โ€” or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app โ€” to start betting!

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.