- The Buccaneers are -4 point favorites vs the Cowboys
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-0) on Dec. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Arlington, TX.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.
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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buccaneers | -4 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -210 |
| Cowboys | +4 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +170 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 60.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today
- Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jonathan Mingo has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Rico Dowdle has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 33% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Cowboys vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | +550 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | +650 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | +650 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | +800 |
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Cowboys Best Bets:
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 9-5 (+3.5 Units / 22.65% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 12.5% ROI
- Buccaneers are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
- Buccaneers are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / ROI
Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 5-9 (-4.8 Units / -31.68% ROI).
- Cowboys are 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.54% ROI
- Cowboys are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
- Cowboys are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys
The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.
The Buccaneers were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .631.
The Buccaneers are 8-4 (.667) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .563.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Cowboys are 11-5 (.688) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 248.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys are winless (0-7) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .256.
The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Cowboys were 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.
Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have averaged just -0.10 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just -0.10 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Cowboys have thrown for 8,068 passing yards in 31 games (260.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 248.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 42.7% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have pressured opposing QBs on 33.3% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 68.8% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 58.3% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have averaged 0.20 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 0.21 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have scored on 46.2% of their drives in the first quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — worst in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 49% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 53% of plays against a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats
The Cowboys have committed 8 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
The Cowboys have committed 12 turnovers in the red zone since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Cowboys have run successful plays on 56% of plays against a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Cowboys scored on 48% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense blitzed on 40% of plays in Week 15 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.4 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.
The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 29% of plays since Week 12 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats
The Cowboys defense have allowed -0.70 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.48.
The Cowboys defense have allowed -0.87 epa per play against play action passes since Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
The Cowboys defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 3rd quarter in Week 15 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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