Buccaneers vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Pick: NFL Week 1

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans walks off the field following an NFL football NFC divisional playoff game against the Detroit Lions, Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024, in Detroit. The Lions won 31-23.
(AP Photo/Jose Juarez)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 05, 2024, 11:40 AM
  • The Buccaneers are -3.5 against the Commanders in Week 1.
  • Tampa Bay has won three straight Week 1 games.
  • I predict the likeliest outcome is the Commanders covering the spread.

Seeking their fourth straight Week 1 win and NFC South title, the Bucs begin their campaign with a home game against the Commanders.ย 

Expectations were low for Tampa Bay last year. However, they defied expectations by winning nine games and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs.ย 

Washington, meanwhile, fell from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last year. In the offseason, they replaced Ron Rivera with Dan Quinn.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 game.ย 

Buccaneers vs. Commanders Odds, Week 1

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline: -185
  • Washington Commanders Moneyline: +150
  • Game Spread: Buccaneers -3.5 (-105)
  • Game Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Buccaneers vs. Commanders Prediction, Week 1

I predict the Commanders cover the spread (+3.5) in Week 1. However, this qualifies as a lean due to unknowns surrounding Jayden Daniels.ย 

The biggest question in this game: Can the Washington offensive line protect Daniels long enough to expose Tampaโ€™s secondary?ย 

Tampa ranked 18th in PFFโ€™s pressure grade and 24th in overall defensive grade.ย 

Most concerning is the corner personnel. Tampaโ€™s best cornerback ranked 81st in PFFโ€™s coverage grades and no player posted a better grade than 66.5.ย 

That should present opportunities for Terry McLaurin and Austin Ekeler, a strong pass-catching running back.ย 

Washington also matches a historically profitable system.ย 

Since 2005, road dogs between +2.5 and +6.5 that won six or fewer games the previous year are 67% ATS, assuming the total is below 50 and itโ€™s Week 1-3.ย 

Dan Quinn is also historically better as an underdog. In his last stint as a head coach, he went 19-14 ATS as an underdog.ย 

Quinnโ€™s arrival should also mean Washingtonโ€™s defense improves year over year โ€” they ranked 32nd in PFFโ€™s defensive grades last year โ€” so itโ€™s Washington or nothing for me.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.