- The Colts are -1.5 against the Patriots.
- Indianapolis arrives in Germany off a road win vs. the Panthers.
- New England has lost five of their last six games.
Before the NFL’s second game on German soil, I’m set to provide a Colts vs. Patriots prediction.
These teams arrive heading in opposite directions. The Colts put an end to a three-game losing streak by beating the Panthers, while New England has lost five of six.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Sunday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest.
Colts vs. Patriots Betting Odds
- Indianapolis Colts Moneyline: -125
- New England Patriots Moneyline: +105
- Game Spread: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-110)
- Game Total: 43 Points
Colts vs. Patriots Predictions
New England Patriots Moneyline (+105) vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is largely a fade of the Colts rather than a play on the Patriots.
More than half of Indy’s point total against Carolina came off pick-sixes. Even though they’re facing Mac Jones, the Colts shouldn’t see that happen again.
Lost in their convincing win over the Panthers is the fact Gardner Minshew and company generated nothing offensively.
Against a bad defense, the Colts amassed only 198 yards.
Teams that racked up fewer than 200 yards of offense one week are 45.5% ATS the next. Teams that created fewer than 200 yards AND WON are 42.6% ATS in their next game.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Stevenson excelled against the Commanders last week but faces a significantly better rush defense in Germany.
The Commanders sit 20th in adjusted line yards per carry, while the Colts are 12th in that category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Even more concerning is that New England’s ground game isn’t very efficient. The Patriots are 25th in rushing yards per game and 28th in both yards per attempt and attempts per game.
Since Week 5, Stevenson has also seen a decline in snap share and attempts.
In Weeks 1-4, he averaged 15 attempts per game and 48.5 snaps per game. That has dropped to 9.2 attempts per game and 35.2 snaps per game in the last five games.
Without much involvement, I question if Stevenson can clear this number.
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