Colts vs. Texans Prediction: 2 Bets for Week 18 AFC South Contest

Ahead of Week 18’s contest, I’m here to provide a pair of Colts vs. Texans predictions. 

Both teams enter this game in good form with a chance to claim a playoff spot. Houston blew out the Titans 26-3 at home last week, while the Colts earned a 23-20 win over the Raiders. 

Entering Saturday’s game, both teams sit at 9-7. However, the Jaguars (9-7) hold the division lead thanks to tiebreakers. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Saturday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

Colts vs. Texans Betting Odds

• Indianapolis Colts Moneyline: -105
• Houston Texans Moneyline: -115
• Game Spread: Houston Texans -1
• Game Total: 47.5 Points

Colts vs. Texans Predictions

Houston Texans Moneyline (-115) at Indianapolis Colts

Disclosure: I bet this at -105 earlier in the week and liked the Texans a lot better as underdogs. That said, it’s still playable at the current number. 

Staring me in the face is the fact Indianapolis won three straight at home, but the Texans are the more complete team. 

Houston sits 12th in total DVOA, while the Colts are 19th, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Plus, Houston’s defense has drastically improved since the first meeting between these teams. Dating back to Week 8, the Texans are 12th in defensive EPA per play and third in success rate. 

In their first seven games, they ranked 18th and 21st, respectively. 

Assuming their defense continues their strong play, that should allow Houston’s offense to thrive. In eight indoor games under C.J. Stroud, Houston is scoring 27.25 points per game. 

Although Indianapolis held the Texans to only 20 points in the first meeting, Houston amassed nearly 400 yards of offense while outgaining the Colts. 

Plus, in the same manner we’ve seen the Texans defense improve, Indy’s defense has regressed. 

Since their bye week, the Colts are 21st in defensive EPA per play and dropback EPA per play. 

Lastly, it’s rare for short favorites to capture two wins over a divisional foe in a single season. 

Since 2003-04, divisional favorites shorter than -2.5 that won the previous head-to-head game are 32-44 straight up in the next meeting. 

Nico Collins Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Collins is 7-7 against this number for the season, but he thrived against the Colts in Week 2. 

Albeit at home, Collins produced seven catches for 146 yards against the Colts.

Shrink his games sample to contests played indoors and the results improve for Collins. In 10 qualifying contests, he’s cleared this number six times. 

Plus, he should receive an increased target share on Saturday, with the Texans facing some injuries out wide. Tank Dell won’t play on Saturday, and Noah Brown is questionable.

Last week against Tennessee, Collins received a 25% target share on C.J. Stroud’s 32 attempts. 

The previous game both Collins and Stroud featured for the entire game, Collins received 12 targets against Stroud’s 27 attempts.  

Moreover, the Colts struggle to defend top wide receivers. To date, Indianapolis sits 16th in DVOA against WR1’s, surrendering 77.4 yards per game to the position. 

As a result, take the over on Collins’ receiving yards prop.