- The Commanders are -7.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 43 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Washington Commanders (8-5-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (5-8-0) on Dec. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA.
The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).
The Commanders vs. Saints Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | -7.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -375 |
| Saints | +7.5 -115 | 43 -110 | +300 |
Commanders vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Zach Ertz has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 67.5 -115 | 67.5 -115 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 31.5 -120 | 31.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 77.5 -115 | 77.5 -115 |
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.99 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.90 Units / 39% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+4.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.78 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 8-4 (+3.65 Units / 25.26% ROI).
- Commanders are 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 1.95% ROI
- Commanders are 9-4 when betting the Over for +4.6 Units / 32.17% ROI
- Commanders are 4-9 when betting the Under for -5.9 Units / ROI
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 5-8 (-3.8 Units / -26.76% ROI).
- Saints are 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -20.72% ROI
- Saints are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
- Saints are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Commanders are 5-13 (.278) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 10th-worst in NFL. The Saints have intercepted 31 passes since the 2023 season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
The Commanders were 3-11 (.214) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.
The Commanders were 2-12 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Saints are winless (0-5) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .401.
The Saints are 1-8 (.111) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Saints are 2-5 (.286) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Saints are 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints
Saints TEs have 15 receiving touchdowns since the 2023 season — 4th-most in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 60 receiving touchdowns since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 50.0% of rush attempts with motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed successful plays on 55.2% of rush attempts against motion this season — worst in NFL.
The Commanders have been successful on 47.9% of plays they have run with motion this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 46.7% of plays against motion this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 56.0% of rush attempts against a stacked front this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed successful plays on 63.2% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have run 56% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Commanders have run 22% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Commanders have scored on 52% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Commanders ran successful plays on 36% of plays on play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints ran 23% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Saints have averaged 0.19 epa per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.10.
The Saints ran 14% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Saints have targeted RBs 25% of the time (104 Pass Attempts/411 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 105.3 with a base rush (857 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 90.4.
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense allowed 0.09 epa per play last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.03.
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 67.9 with a light front (345 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 84.8.
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 32.6 on contested throws (54 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 71.8.
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 58.2 with a light front (133 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 87.2.
The Saints defense has not allowed a successful play on any play on contested throws since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Saints vs Commanders and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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